Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / West Virginia @ TCU WVU @ TCU

WEST VIRGINIA

WEST VIRGINIAWVU

5-3  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sat, Oct 24 • 12:00 PM ET
Amon G. Carter Stadium
View Odds Details →

TCU

TCUTCU

3-4  |  Home

20
Key Game
Bryan Hansen
KEY GAME

Bryan Hansen

#83 | Punter
@
John Hoyet Chance
KEY GAME

John Hoyet Chance

#48 | Punter
Player
Bryan Hansen None-None
John Hoyet Chance None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WEST VIRGINIA
25%
📊
TCU
75%
▲ Edge: +0.70% (WVU)
WEST VIRGINIA 25% Book Odds: +306
TCU 78% Book Odds: -363
Book Implied: 24.60% / 78.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.0
Projected
Book Total
59.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +5.0 (Under)
Over 59.0 42%
Under 59.0 58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.6
TCU
Book Spread
-10.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (TCU)
West VirginiaWVU (+10.5) 0 TCUTCU (-10.5)
TCU Horned Frogs (-10.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

West Virginia Cover

20.4%

TCU Cover

79.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TCU -11.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TCU)

WVU By 1-6 points

9.6%

WVU By 7-13 points

6.2%

TCU By 1-6 points

14.4%

TCU By 7-13 points

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
21.2
WEST VIRGINIA
Book Implied: 24.20
32.8
TCU
Book Implied: 34.80
Simulated Score
26
WEST VIRGINIA
Book Implied: 24.20
35
TCU
Book Implied: 34.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI TCU Loss
75% Win Prob
A
Sim TCU Loss
81% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI TCU (-10.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.6
D
Sim West Virginia (+10.5) Win
Proj Spread: +9.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI u59.0 Win
Proj Total: 54.0
B
Sim o59.0 Loss
Proj Total: 61.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 24, 2026 WVU @ TCU 24 - 20
Oct 25, 2025 TCU @ WVU 23 - 17
Sep 30, 2023 WVU @ TCU 24 - 21
Oct 29, 2022 TCU @ WVU 41 - 31
Oct 23, 2021 WVU @ TCU 29 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +50.0% more
TCU: 1.5 vs West Virginia: 1.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +62.6% more
West Virginia: 232.5 vs TCU: 87.0
Total Yards (L5) +28.8% more
West Virginia: 520.3 vs TCU: 370.5
First Downs (L5) +23.7% more
West Virginia: 25.2 vs TCU: 19.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WVU Score 21.2 24
TCU Score 32.8 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.3 / 25.2 29.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 87.0 / 232.5 112.0 / 186.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.63 / 0.37
Total Yards 370.5 / 520.3 484.0 / 265.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 1.0 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +210 / -258 → +306 / -363 ↑
10%TICKETS90%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +7 / -7 → +10.5 / -10.5 ↑
77%TICKETS23%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: 58.5 → 59 ↑
39%TICKETS61%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WVU Advantage
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: -1.2
TCU
4-5-0 (44.4%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WVU Advantage
4-3-1 (57.1%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: -1.2
TCU
4-5-0 (44.4%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
WVU
7-1-0
O: 87.5% / U: 12.5% Total +/-: +10.6
TCU
2-7-0
O: 22.2% / U: 77.8% Total +/-: -11.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TCU
WVU
TCU
WVU
ML
67% 6-3
50% 4-4
44% 4-5
38% 3-5
ATS
33% 3-6
29% 2-5-1
44% 4-5
29% 2-5-1
TTL
56% 5-4
43% 3-4-1
11% 1-8
0% 0-7-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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