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KANSAS STATE

KANSAS STKSU

4-3  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sat, Oct 24 • 3:45 PM ET
Mountain America Stadium
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA STATE

ARIZONA STASU

4-3  |  Home

28
Key Game
Simon McClannan
KEY GAME

Simon McClannan

#8 | Punter
@
Nick McLarty
KEY GAME

Nick McLarty

#35 | Punter
Player
Simon McClannan None-None
Nick McLarty None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
KANSAS ST
54%
📊
ARIZONA ST
46%
▲ Edge: +0.60% (KSU)
KANSAS ST 54% Book Odds: -115
ARIZONA ST 49% Book Odds: +104
Book Implied: 53.50% / 49%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
51.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 (Over)
Over 51.5 58%
Under 51.5 43%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
KANSAS STATE
Book Spread
-1
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Kansas State)
Kansas StKSU (-1) 0 Arizona StASU (+1)
Kansas State Wildcats (-1) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kansas St Cover

54.0%

Arizona St Cover

46.0%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around KSU -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KSU)

KSU By 1-6 points

16.8%

KSU By 7-13 points

16.4%

ASU By 1-6 points

16.0%

ASU By 7-13 points

14.3%

AI Model Projected Score
28.2
KANSAS STATE
Book Implied: 26.20
26.8
ARIZONA STATE
Book Implied: 25.20
Simulated Score
29
KANSAS STATE
Book Implied: 26.20
30
ARIZONA STATE
Book Implied: 25.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Kansas St Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Sim Arizona St Win
53% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Kansas St (-1) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.4
D
Sim Arizona St (+1) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Sim o51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 59.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 24, 2026 KSU @ ASU 17 - 28
Nov 16, 2024 ASU @ KSU 24 - 14
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +47.8% more
Kansas State: 242.0 vs Arizona State: 126.4
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +19.0% more
Kansas State: 0.5 vs Arizona State: 0.3
Total Yards (L5) +10.7% more
Kansas State: 454.6 vs Arizona State: 405.7
First Downs (L5) +9.8% more
Kansas State: 22.8 vs Arizona State: 20.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KSU Score 28.2 17
ASU Score 26.8 28
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.6 / 22.8 19.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 126.4 / 242.0 147.0 / 84.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.27 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 405.7 / 454.6 359.0 / 278.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 1.0 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -155 / +130 → -115 / +104 ↑
77%TICKETS23%
59%MONEY41%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -3 / +3 → -1 / +1 ↑
65%TICKETS35%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: 56.5 → 51.5 ↓
24%TICKETS76%
20%MONEY80%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KSU
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 9.9 ATS +/-: -1.3
ASU
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: -2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KSU
3-4-1 (42.9%)
Margin: 9.9 ATS +/-: -1.3
ASU Advantage
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: -2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
KSU
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: +1.3
ASU
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: +8.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ASU
KSU
ASU
KSU
ML
62% 5-3
62% 5-3
75% 6-2
75% 6-2
ATS
38% 3-5
71% 5-2-1
38% 3-5
86% 6-1-1
TTL
50% 4-4
38% 3-5
38% 3-5
62% 5-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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