Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Iowa State @ Arizona ISU @ ARIZ

IOWA STATE

IOWA STATEISU

3-4  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Oct 24 • 7:30 PM ET
Casino Del Sol Stadium
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

ARIZONAARIZ

6-1  |  Home

39
Key Game
Ethan Gurney
KEY GAME

Ethan Gurney

#95 | Punter
@
Chase Ridley
KEY GAME

Chase Ridley

#37 | Punter
Player
Ethan Gurney None-None
Chase Ridley None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
IOWA STATE
25%
📊
ARIZONA
75%
IOWA STATE 25% Book Odds: +295
ARIZONA 79% Book Odds: -375
Book Implied: 25.30% / 78.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.5
Projected
Book Total
51.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 (Over)
Over 51.5 54%
Under 51.5 46%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+11.5
IOWA STATE
Book Spread
+11.5
Book Line
Iowa StateISU (+11.5) 0 ArizonaARIZ (-11.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+11.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Iowa State Cover

79.4%

Arizona Cover

20.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ISU +11.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ISU)

ISU By 1-6 points

9.6%

ISU By 7-13 points

6.2%

ARIZ By 1-6 points

14.4%

ARIZ By 7-13 points

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
21
IOWA STATE
Book Implied: 20
32.5
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 31.50
Simulated Score
27
IOWA STATE
Book Implied: 20
28
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 31.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Arizona Win
75% Win Prob
A
Sim Arizona Win
53% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Iowa State (-11.5) Win
Proj Spread: +11.5
D
Sim Iowa State (+11.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 53.5
C
Sim o51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 24, 2026 ISU @ ARIZ 3 - 39
Sep 27, 2025 ARIZ @ ISU 14 - 39
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +32.0% more
Arizona: 1.1 vs Iowa State: 0.8
Total Yards (L5) +31.3% more
Arizona: 466.3 vs Iowa State: 355.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +22.0% more
Arizona: 0.5 vs Iowa State: 0.3
First Downs (L5) +17.8% more
Arizona: 23.6 vs Iowa State: 20.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ISU Score 21.0 3
ARIZ Score 32.5 39
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.6 / 20.0 24.0 / 14.0
Rushing Yards 159.0 / 176.9 141.0 / 52.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.5 / 0.21
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 466.3 / 355.2 477.0 / 221.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 0.8 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +310 / -395 → +295 / -375 ↓
4%TICKETS96%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +10 / -10 → +11.5 / -11.5 ↑
55%TICKETS45%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: 50.5 → 51.5 ↑
63%TICKETS37%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ISU
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: +1.6
ARIZ Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 16.0 ATS +/-: +4.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ISU Advantage
3-4-1 (42.9%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: +1.6
ARIZ
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: 16.0 ATS +/-: +4.6
⚖️ Over/Under
ISU
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +6.9
ARIZ
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARIZ
ISU
ARIZ
ISU
ML
100% 8-0
100% 8-0
75% 6-2
88% 7-1
ATS
62% 5-3
71% 5-2-1
38% 3-5
43% 3-4-1
TTL
25% 2-6
38% 3-5
25% 2-6
38% 3-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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