Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Baylor @ Kansas BAY @ KU

BAYLOR

BAYLORBAY

4-3  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sat, Oct 24 • 1:00 PM ET
David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS

KANSASKU

3-4  |  Home

25
Key Game
Rhett Armstrong
KEY GAME

Rhett Armstrong

#98 | Place kicker
@
Matthew Gill
KEY GAME

Matthew Gill

#99 | Punter
Player
Rhett Armstrong None-None
Matthew Gill None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BAYLOR
60%
📊
KANSAS
40%
▲ Edge: +11.40% (BAY)
BAYLOR 49% Book Odds: +104
KANSAS 54% Book Odds: -115
Book Implied: 49% / 53.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.0
Projected
Book Total
54.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +3.5 (Under)
Over 54.5 42%
Under 54.5 58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.6
BAYLOR
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.1 points (Baylor)
BaylorBAY (+1.5) 0 KansasKU (-1.5)
Baylor Bears (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Baylor Cover

62.9%

Kansas Cover

37.1%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around BAY -4.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAY)

BAY By 1-6 points

16.9%

BAY By 7-13 points

18.4%

KU By 1-6 points

14.4%

KU By 7-13 points

11.6%

AI Model Projected Score
27.8
BAYLOR
Book Implied: 26.50
23.2
KANSAS
Book Implied: 28
Simulated Score
26
BAYLOR
Book Implied: 26.50
36
KANSAS
Book Implied: 28
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Baylor Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim Kansas Win
84% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Baylor (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.6
B
Sim Kansas (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u54.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Sim o54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 62.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 24, 2026 BAY @ KU 24 - 25
Nov 30, 2024 KU @ BAY 17 - 45
Oct 22, 2022 KU @ BAY 23 - 35
Sep 18, 2021 BAY @ KU 45 - 7
Sep 26, 2020 KU @ BAY 14 - 47
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +17.4% more
Baylor: 1.5 vs Kansas: 1.2
First Downs (L5) +9.2% more
Baylor: 24.3 vs Kansas: 22.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +39.8% more
Kansas: 192.5 vs Baylor: 137.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAY Score 27.8 24
KU Score 23.2 25
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.0 / 24.3 24.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 192.5 / 137.7 209.0 / 122.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.26 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.61 / 0.39
Total Yards 416.4 / 412.3 421.0 / 358.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.5 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -120 / +100 → +104 / -115 ↑
79%TICKETS21%
84%MONEY16%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5 ↑
69%TICKETS31%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: 54.5 → 54.5
22%TICKETS78%
29%MONEY71%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAY Advantage
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 15.4 ATS +/-: +7.8
KU
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAY Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 15.4 ATS +/-: +7.8
KU
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
BAY
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -7.0
KU
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KU
BAY
KU
BAY
ML
75% 6-2
62% 5-3
62% 5-3
75% 6-2
ATS
50% 4-4
38% 3-5
25% 2-6
50% 4-4
TTL
62% 5-3
88% 7-1
50% 4-4
38% 3-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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