Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Vanderbilt @ Kentucky VAN @ UK

VANDERBILT

VANDERBILTVAN

3-5  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sat, Oct 24 • 7:30 PM ET
Kroger Field
View Odds Details →

KENTUCKY

KENTUCKYUK

7-1  |  Home

34
Key Game
Tyler Ebel
KEY GAME

Tyler Ebel

#37 | Punter
@
Wilson Berry
KEY GAME

Wilson Berry

#93 | Punter
Player
Tyler Ebel None-None
Wilson Berry None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
VANDERBILT
37%
📊
KENTUCKY
63%
▲ Edge: +14.30% (VAN)
VANDERBILT 23% Book Odds: +340
KENTUCKY 82% Book Odds: -441
Book Implied: 22.70% / 81.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.5
Projected
Book Total
51.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 (Over)
Over 51.5 56%
Under 51.5 44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.5
VANDERBILT
Book Spread
+10.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Vanderbilt)
VanderbiltVAN (+10.5) 0 KentuckyUK (-10.5)
Vanderbilt Commodores (+10.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Vanderbilt Cover

65.3%

Kentucky Cover

34.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around VAN +5.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VAN)

VAN By 1-6 points

13.8%

VAN By 7-13 points

10.8%

UK By 1-6 points

16.8%

UK By 7-13 points

18.8%

AI Model Projected Score
24.5
VANDERBILT
Book Implied: 20.50
30
KENTUCKY
Book Implied: 31
Simulated Score
24
VANDERBILT
Book Implied: 20.50
36
KENTUCKY
Book Implied: 31
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Kentucky Win
63% Win Prob
B
Sim Kentucky Win
88% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Vanderbilt (+10.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +5.5
B
Sim Kentucky (-10.5) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 54.5
C
Sim o51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 60.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 24, 2026 VAN @ UK 17 - 34
Nov 22, 2025 UK @ VAN 17 - 45
Oct 12, 2024 VAN @ UK 20 - 13
Sep 23, 2023 UK @ VAN 45 - 28
Nov 12, 2022 VAN @ UK 24 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +21.9% more
Kentucky: 139.7 vs Vanderbilt: 114.6
Turnovers (L5) +78.5% more
Vanderbilt: 2.1 vs Kentucky: 0.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +10.0% more
Vanderbilt: 0.4 vs Kentucky: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VAN Score 24.5 17
UK Score 30.0 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.7 / 19.1 24.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 139.7 / 114.6 173.0 / 15.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.62 / 0.58
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 348.1 / 363.3 376.0 / 262.0
Turnovers 0.5 / 2.1 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +310 / -395 → +340 / -441 ↑
2%TICKETS98%
5%MONEY95%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +9.5 / -9.5 → +10.5 / -10.5 ↑
32%TICKETS68%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52.5 → 51.5 ↓
10%TICKETS90%
9%MONEY91%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VAN
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -7.5 ATS +/-: -7.9
UK Advantage
7-1-0 (87.5%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +7.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VAN
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -7.5 ATS +/-: -7.9
UK Advantage
7-1-0 (87.5%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +7.1
⚖️ Over/Under
VAN
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: +0.3
UK
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: +6.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UK
VAN
UK
VAN
ML
50% 4-4
75% 6-2
50% 4-4
62% 5-3
ATS
25% 2-6
50% 4-4
38% 3-5
88% 7-1
TTL
50% 4-4
75% 6-2
62% 5-3
75% 6-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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