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CALIFORNIA

CALIFORNIACAL

3-5  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Oct 24 • 12:00 PM ET
Gerald J. Ford Stadium
View Odds Details →

SMU

SMUSMU

6-1  |  Home

59
Key Game
Towns McGough
KEY GAME

Towns McGough

#33 | Place kicker
@
Wade McSparron
KEY GAME

Wade McSparron

#43 | Punter
Player
Towns McGough None-None
Wade McSparron None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CALIFORNIA
15%
📊
SMU
85%
▲ Edge: +2.10% (CAL)
CALIFORNIA 13% Book Odds: +675
SMU 91% Book Odds: -1053
Book Implied: 12.90% / 91.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
56.0
Projected
Book Total
55.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 55.5 51%
Under 55.5 49%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+18.0
CALIFORNIA
Book Spread
+18.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (California)
CaliforniaCAL (+18.5) 0 SMUSMU (-18.5)
California Golden Bears (+18.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

California Cover

90.1%

SMU Cover

9.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CAL +18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CAL)

CAL By 1-6 points

5.3%

CAL By 7-13 points

2.8%

SMU By 1-6 points

10.0%

SMU By 7-13 points

16.8%

AI Model Projected Score
19
CALIFORNIA
Book Implied: 18.50
37
SMU
Book Implied: 37
Simulated Score
21
CALIFORNIA
Book Implied: 18.50
39
SMU
Book Implied: 37
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI SMU Win
85% Win Prob
A
Sim SMU Win
96% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI California (+18.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +18.0
D
Sim California (+18.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +18.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o55.5 Win
Proj Total: 56.0
D
Sim o55.5 Win
Proj Total: 60.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 24, 2026 CAL @ SMU 20 - 59
Nov 29, 2025 SMU @ CAL 35 - 38
Nov 30, 2024 CAL @ SMU 6 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +66.5% more
SMU: 137.7 vs California: 82.7
Turnovers (L5) +30.0% more
SMU: 0.9 vs California: 0.6
Total Yards (L5) +17.8% more
SMU: 421.7 vs California: 357.9
First Downs (L5) +12.5% more
SMU: 23.4 vs California: 20.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CAL Score 19.0 20
SMU Score 37.0 59
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.4 / 20.8 31.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 137.7 / 82.7 256.0 / 40.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.22 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 421.7 / 357.9 492.0 / 305.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +550 / -800 → +675 / -1053 ↑
3%TICKETS97%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +16.5 / -16.5 → +18.5 / -18.5 ↑
58%TICKETS42%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52.5 → 55.5 ↑
20%TICKETS80%
27%MONEY73%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CAL
3-6-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -9.7 ATS +/-: -9.5
SMU Advantage
7-2-0 (77.8%)
Margin: 14.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CAL
2-7-0 (22.2%)
Margin: -9.7 ATS +/-: -9.5
SMU Advantage
3-4-2 (42.9%)
Margin: 14.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
CAL
3-6-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -1.7
SMU
4-5-0
O: 44.4% / U: 55.6% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SMU
CAL
SMU
CAL
ML
89% 8-1
56% 5-4
89% 8-1
78% 7-2
ATS
50% 4-4-1
33% 3-6
75% 6-2-1
56% 5-4
TTL
44% 4-5
56% 5-4
67% 6-3
78% 7-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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