Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Michigan St @ UCLA MSU @ UCLA

MICHIGAN STATE

MICHIGAN STMSU

2-6  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Oct 24 • 3:30 PM ET
Rose Bowl
View Odds Details →

UCLA

UCLAUCLA

7-0  |  Home

28
Key Game
Rhys Dakin
KEY GAME

Rhys Dakin

#9 | Punter
@
Curtis Gerrand
KEY GAME

Curtis Gerrand

#35 | Punter
Player
Rhys Dakin None-None
Curtis Gerrand None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MICHIGAN ST
17%
📊
UCLA
83%
▲ Edge: +1.40% (MSU)
MICHIGAN ST 15% Book Odds: +561
UCLA 88% Book Odds: -739
Book Implied: 15.10% / 88.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.6
Projected
Book Total
43.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +11.1 (Over)
Over 43.5 75%
Under 43.5 25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
UCLA
Book Spread
-16
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (UCLA)
Michigan StMSU (+16) 0 UCLAUCLA (-16)
UCLA Bruins (-16) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Michigan St Cover

11.2%

UCLA Cover

88.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UCLA -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCLA)

MSU By 1-6 points

5.9%

MSU By 7-13 points

3.2%

UCLA By 1-6 points

10.7%

UCLA By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
18.8
MICHIGAN STATE
Book Implied: 13.80
35.8
UCLA
Book Implied: 29.80
Simulated Score
21
MICHIGAN STATE
Book Implied: 13.80
34
UCLA
Book Implied: 29.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI UCLA Win
83% Win Prob
A
Sim UCLA Win
90% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI UCLA (-16) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Michigan St (+16) Loss
Proj Spread: +13.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o43.5 Loss
Proj Total: 54.6
A
Sim o43.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 24, 2026 MSU @ UCLA 10 - 28
Oct 11, 2025 UCLA @ MSU 38 - 13
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +71.6% more
UCLA: 182.5 vs Michigan State: 106.3
Turnovers (L5) +69.4% more
UCLA: 1.8 vs Michigan State: 1.1
Total Yards (L5) +34.7% more
UCLA: 407.7 vs Michigan State: 302.7
Time of Possession (L5) +13.0% more
UCLA: 0.6 vs Michigan State: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MSU Score 18.8 10
UCLA Score 35.8 28
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.2 / 17.9 25.0 / 11.0
Rushing Yards 182.5 / 106.3 245.0 / 47.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.38 / 0.18
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.6 / 0.4
Total Yards 407.7 / 302.7 443.0 / 156.0
Turnovers 1.8 / 1.1 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +400 / -535 → +561 / -739 ↑
2%TICKETS98%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +13.5 / -13.5 → +16 / -16 ↑
44%TICKETS56%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: 47.5 → 43.5 ↓
80%TICKETS20%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSU
2-6-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -5.9 ATS +/-: -0.6
UCLA Advantage
8-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 20.1 ATS +/-: +12.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSU
4-3-1 (57.1%)
Margin: -5.9 ATS +/-: -0.6
UCLA Advantage
8-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 20.1 ATS +/-: +12.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MSU
2-6-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -2.4
UCLA
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCLA
MSU
UCLA
MSU
ML
62% 5-3
100% 8-0
62% 5-3
62% 5-3
ATS
43% 3-4-1
57% 4-3-1
14% 1-6-1
43% 3-4-1
TTL
25% 2-6
50% 4-4
25% 2-6
25% 2-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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