Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Iowa @ Minnesota IOWA @ MINN

IOWA

IOWAIOWA

5-2  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Oct 24 • 3:30 PM ET
Huntington Bank Stadium
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

MINNESOTAMINN

5-2  |  Home

13
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME

Boston Everitt

#49 | Punter
@
Luke Drzewiecki
KEY GAME

Luke Drzewiecki

#-- | Place kicker
Player
Boston Everitt None-None
Luke Drzewiecki None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
IOWA
71%
📊
MINNESOTA
29%
▲ Edge: +0.50% (MINN)
IOWA 74% Book Odds: -291
MINNESOTA 29% Book Odds: +251
Book Implied: 74.40% / 28.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.5
Projected
Book Total
40.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 (Over)
Over 40.5 68%
Under 40.5 32%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.5
IOWA
Book Spread
-7.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Iowa)
IowaIOWA (-7.5) 0 MinnesotaMINN (+7.5)
Iowa Hawkeyes (-7.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Iowa Cover

75.1%

Minnesota Cover

24.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around IOWA -9.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IOWA)

IOWA By 1-6 points

15.5%

IOWA By 7-13 points

19.7%

MINN By 1-6 points

11.1%

MINN By 7-13 points

7.6%

AI Model Projected Score
29
IOWA
Book Implied: 24
19.5
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 16.50
Simulated Score
22
IOWA
Book Implied: 24
30
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 16.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Iowa Loss
71% Win Prob
A
Sim Minnesota Win
79% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Iowa (-7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.5
C
Sim Minnesota (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o40.5 Loss
Proj Total: 48.5
A
Sim o40.5 Loss
Proj Total: 52.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 24, 2026 IOWA @ MINN 10 - 13
Oct 25, 2025 MINN @ IOWA 3 - 41
Sep 21, 2024 IOWA @ MINN 31 - 14
Oct 21, 2023 MINN @ IOWA 12 - 10
Nov 19, 2022 IOWA @ MINN 13 - 10
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +50.6% more
Iowa: 182.3 vs Minnesota: 90.1
First Downs (L5) +22.7% more
Iowa: 19.8 vs Minnesota: 15.3
Total Yards (L5) +21.9% more
Iowa: 385.0 vs Minnesota: 300.8
Turnovers (L5) +86.0% more
Minnesota: 1.5 vs Iowa: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IOWA Score 29.0 10
MINN Score 19.5 13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.3 / 19.8 11.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 90.1 / 182.3 72.0 / 90.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.14 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 300.8 / 385.0 209.0 / 288.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 0.6 1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -205 / +170 → -291 / +251 ↓
96%TICKETS4%
92%MONEY8%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -5.5 / +5.5 → -7.5 / +7.5 ↓
69%TICKETS31%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: 41.5 → 40.5 ↓
62%TICKETS38%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IOWA Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: +6.9
MINN
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: +2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IOWA
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: +6.9
MINN Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: +2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
IOWA
2-6-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -1.8
MINN
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MINN
IOWA
MINN
IOWA
ML
38% 3-5
75% 6-2
88% 7-1
75% 6-2
ATS
38% 3-5
62% 5-3
62% 5-3
50% 4-4
TTL
50% 4-4
25% 2-6
25% 2-6
25% 2-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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