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USC

USCUSC

6-2  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Oct 24 • 7:30 PM ET
Camp Randall Stadium
View Odds Details →

WISCONSIN

WISCONSINWIS

5-2  |  Home

24
Key Game
Lachlan Carrigan
KEY GAME

Lachlan Carrigan

#35 | Punter
@
Gavin Lahm
KEY GAME

Gavin Lahm

#97 | Place kicker
Player
Lachlan Carrigan None-None
Gavin Lahm None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
USC
67%
📊
WISCONSIN
33%
▲ Edge: +10.60% (USC)
USC 57% Book Odds: -130
WISCONSIN 48% Book Odds: +110
Book Implied: 56.50% / 47.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.0
Projected
Book Total
50.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 (Over)
Over 50.5 55%
Under 50.5 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.4
USC
Book Spread
-2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.9 points (USC)
USCUSC (-2.5) 0 WisconsinWIS (+2.5)
USC Trojans (-2.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

USC Cover

70.1%

Wisconsin Cover

29.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around USC -7.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USC)

USC By 1-6 points

16.3%

USC By 7-13 points

19.4%

WIS By 1-6 points

12.6%

WIS By 7-13 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
30.2
USC
Book Implied: 26.50
22.8
WISCONSIN
Book Implied: 24
Simulated Score
31
USC
Book Implied: 26.50
25
WISCONSIN
Book Implied: 24
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI USC Loss
67% Win Prob
B
Sim USC Loss
72% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI USC (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.4
B
Sim USC (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o50.5 Loss
Proj Total: 53.0
C
Sim o50.5 Loss
Proj Total: 56.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 24, 2026 USC @ WIS 7 - 24
Sep 28, 2024 WIS @ USC 21 - 38
Dec 30, 2015 USC @ WIS 21 - 23
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +34.2% more
USC: 24.1 vs Wisconsin: 15.8
Total Yards (L5) +26.5% more
USC: 428.0 vs Wisconsin: 314.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +16.6% more
Wisconsin: 158.3 vs USC: 135.7
Turnovers (L5) +14.0% more
Wisconsin: 0.8 vs USC: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USC Score 30.2 7
WIS Score 22.8 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.8 / 24.1 16.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 158.3 / 135.7 142.0 / -17.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.47
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 314.7 / 428.0 200.0 / 241.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 0.6 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -120 / +100 → -130 / +110 ↓
88%TICKETS12%
85%MONEY15%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -2.5 / +2.5 ↓
65%TICKETS35%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52.5 → 50.5 ↓
49%TICKETS51%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USC Advantage
7-2-0 (77.8%)
Margin: 8.2 ATS +/-: -4.2
WIS
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 6.5 ATS +/-: +1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USC
3-6-0 (33.3%)
Margin: 8.2 ATS +/-: -4.2
WIS Advantage
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 6.5 ATS +/-: +1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
USC
4-5-0
O: 44.4% / U: 55.6% Total +/-: +0.6
WIS
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -4.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WIS
USC
WIS
USC
ML
75% 6-2
78% 7-2
50% 4-4
67% 6-3
ATS
38% 3-5
56% 5-4
50% 4-4
56% 5-4
TTL
38% 3-5
44% 4-5
62% 5-3
33% 3-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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