Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Colorado @ Oklahoma St COLO @ OKST

COLORADO

COLORADOCOLO

2-5  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sat, Oct 24 • 7:00 PM ET
Boone Pickens Stadium
View Odds Details →

OKLAHOMA STATE

OKLAHOMA STOKST

5-2  |  Home

57
Key Game
Damon Greaves
KEY GAME

Damon Greaves

#35 | Punter
@
Lachie Pozzobon
KEY GAME

Lachie Pozzobon

#37 | Punter
Player
Damon Greaves None-None
Lachie Pozzobon None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COLORADO
25%
📊
OKLAHOMA ST
75%
▲ Edge: +5.90% (COLO)
COLORADO 20% Book Odds: +410
OKLAHOMA ST 85% Book Odds: -549
Book Implied: 19.60% / 84.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.0
Projected
Book Total
55.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +2.5 (Under)
Over 55.5 47%
Under 55.5 53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+11.4
COLORADO
Book Spread
+13.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.1 points (Colorado)
ColoradoCOLO (+13.5) 0 Oklahoma StOKST (-13.5)
Colorado Buffaloes (+13.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Colorado Cover

79.2%

Oklahoma St Cover

20.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around COLO +11.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COLO)

COLO By 1-6 points

9.7%

COLO By 7-13 points

6.3%

OKST By 1-6 points

14.5%

OKST By 7-13 points

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
20.8
COLORADO
Book Implied: 21
32.2
OKLAHOMA STATE
Book Implied: 34.50
Simulated Score
19
COLORADO
Book Implied: 21
35
OKLAHOMA STATE
Book Implied: 34.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Oklahoma St Win
75% Win Prob
A
Sim Oklahoma St Win
94% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Colorado (+13.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +11.4
C
Sim Oklahoma St (-13.5) Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u55.5 Loss
Proj Total: 53.0
D
Sim u55.5 Loss
Proj Total: 54.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 24, 2026 COLO @ OKST 24 - 57
Nov 29, 2024 OKST @ COLO 0 - 52
Dec 29, 2016 OKST @ COLO 38 - 8
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +29.2% more
Oklahoma State: 160.2 vs Colorado: 123.9
Total Yards (L5) +28.3% more
Oklahoma State: 489.9 vs Colorado: 381.8
First Downs (L5) +20.5% more
Oklahoma State: 24.3 vs Colorado: 20.2
Turnovers (L5) +31.8% more
Colorado: 2.4 vs Oklahoma State: 1.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COLO Score 20.8 24
OKST Score 32.2 57
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.3 / 20.2 28.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 160.2 / 123.9 188.0 / 56.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.43 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 489.9 / 381.8 598.0 / 399.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 2.4 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +410 / -549 → +410 / -549
2%TICKETS98%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +14 / -14 → +13.5 / -13.5 ↓
41%TICKETS59%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: 54.5 → 55.5 ↑
8%TICKETS92%
22%MONEY78%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COLO
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -6.2
OKST Advantage
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +5.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COLO
2-5-1 (28.6%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -6.2
OKST Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +5.1
⚖️ Over/Under
COLO
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: -1.8
OKST
6-2-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +9.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKST
COLO
OKST
COLO
ML
50% 4-4
75% 6-2
75% 6-2
75% 6-2
ATS
38% 3-5
43% 3-4-1
50% 4-4
71% 5-2-1
TTL
25% 2-6
50% 4-4
38% 3-5
25% 2-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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