Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Tennessee @ South Carolina TENN @ SC

TENNESSEE

TENNESSEETENN

6-2  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sat, Oct 24 • 3:30 PM ET
Williams-Brice Stadium
View Odds Details →

SOUTH CAROLINA

SOUTH CAROLINASC

4-3  |  Home

27
Key Game
Jackson Ross
KEY GAME

Jackson Ross

#98 | Punter
@
Mason Love
KEY GAME

Mason Love

#24 | Place kicker
Player
Jackson Ross None-None
Mason Love None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TENNESSEE
72%
📊
SOUTH CAROLINA
28%
▲ Edge: +25% (TENN)
TENNESSEE 47% Book Odds: +112
SOUTH CAROLINA 55% Book Odds: -124
Book Implied: 47.20% / 55.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.0
Projected
Book Total
50.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 (Over)
Over 50.5 55%
Under 50.5 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
TENNESSEE
Book Spread
+2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.5 points (Tennessee)
TennesseeTENN (+2.5) 0 South CarolinaSC (-2.5)
Tennessee Volunteers (+2.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tennessee Cover

76.2%

South Carolina Cover

23.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around TENN -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TENN)

TENN By 1-6 points

15.3%

TENN By 7-13 points

19.7%

SC By 1-6 points

10.7%

SC By 7-13 points

7.3%

AI Model Projected Score
31.5
TENNESSEE
Book Implied: 24
21.5
SOUTH CAROLINA
Book Implied: 26.50
Simulated Score
28
TENNESSEE
Book Implied: 24
29
SOUTH CAROLINA
Book Implied: 26.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tennessee Loss
72% Win Prob
A
Sim South Carolina Win
53% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tennessee (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
A
Sim Tennessee (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o50.5 Win
Proj Total: 53.0
C
Sim o50.5 Win
Proj Total: 57.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 24, 2026 TENN @ SC 24 - 27
Sep 30, 2023 SC @ TENN 20 - 41
Nov 19, 2022 TENN @ SC 38 - 63
Oct 9, 2021 SC @ TENN 20 - 45
Sep 26, 2020 TENN @ SC 31 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +30.6% more
Tennessee: 1.8 vs South Carolina: 1.3
Total Yards (L5) +16.9% more
South Carolina: 434.8 vs Tennessee: 371.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +13.0% more
South Carolina: 0.5 vs Tennessee: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TENN Score 31.5 24
SC Score 21.5 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.9 / 20.9 21.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 185.4 / 179.8 134.0 / 184.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.38 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 434.8 / 371.8 344.0 / 320.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.8 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -118 / -102 → +112 / -124 ↑
71%TICKETS29%
68%MONEY32%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → +2.5 / -2.5 ↑
77%TICKETS23%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: 51.5 → 50.5 ↓
46%TICKETS54%
40%MONEY60%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TENN Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 16.0 ATS +/-: +3.3
SC
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +3.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TENN
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 16.0 ATS +/-: +3.3
SC
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +3.9
⚖️ Over/Under
TENN
2-6-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -7.1
SC
6-2-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +8.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SC
TENN
SC
TENN
ML
38% 3-5
62% 5-3
62% 5-3
75% 6-2
ATS
38% 3-5
62% 5-3
38% 3-5
88% 7-1
TTL
38% 3-5
25% 2-6
75% 6-2
38% 3-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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