Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Oregon @ Illinois ORE @ ILL

OREGON

OREGONORE

4-3  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Oct 24 • 3:00 PM ET
Gies Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

ILLINOIS

ILLINOISILL

4-3  |  Home

21
Key Game
Bailey Ettridge
KEY GAME

Bailey Ettridge

#39 | Punter
@
Lars Rau
KEY GAME

Lars Rau

#81 | Punter
Player
Bailey Ettridge None-None
Lars Rau None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OREGON
78%
📊
ILLINOIS
22%
OREGON 80% Book Odds: -398
ILLINOIS 23% Book Odds: +332
Book Implied: 79.90% / 23.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.4
Projected
Book Total
49.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +5.9 (Over)
Over 49.5 66%
Under 49.5 34%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
OREGON
Book Spread
-10
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Oregon)
OregonORE (-10) 0 IllinoisILL (+10)
Oregon Ducks (-10) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Oregon Cover

82.3%

Illinois Cover

17.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ORE -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORE)

ORE By 1-6 points

13.5%

ORE By 7-13 points

19.3%

ILL By 1-6 points

8.6%

ILL By 7-13 points

5.3%

AI Model Projected Score
34.2
OREGON
Book Implied: 29.80
21.2
ILLINOIS
Book Implied: 19.80
Simulated Score
34
OREGON
Book Implied: 29.80
28
ILLINOIS
Book Implied: 19.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Oregon Loss
78% Win Prob
A
Sim Oregon Loss
72% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Oregon (-10) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
C
Sim Illinois (+10) Win
Proj Spread: +6.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o49.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.4
A
Sim o49.5 Loss
Proj Total: 62.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 24, 2026 ORE @ ILL 10 - 21
Oct 26, 2024 ILL @ ORE 9 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +69.0% more
Oregon: 2.5 vs Illinois: 0.8
First Downs (L5) +27.3% more
Illinois: 23.8 vs Oregon: 18.7
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +14.0% more
Illinois: 0.5 vs Oregon: 0.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +9.1% more
Illinois: 143.4 vs Oregon: 131.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ORE Score 34.2 10
ILL Score 21.2 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.8 / 18.7 15.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 143.4 / 131.5 225.0 / 180.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.5 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 400.3 / 368.7 314.0 / 426.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 2.5 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -425 / +330 → -398 / +332
97%TICKETS3%
94%MONEY6%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -12.5 / +12.5 → -10 / +10 ↑
56%TICKETS44%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: 51.5 → 49.5 ↓
26%TICKETS74%
26%MONEY74%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORE
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 11.9 ATS +/-: -7.4
ILL
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORE
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: 11.9 ATS +/-: -7.4
ILL Advantage
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ORE
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: -1.3
ILL
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ILL
ORE
ILL
ORE
ML
62% 5-3
62% 5-3
62% 5-3
50% 4-4
ATS
29% 2-5-1
25% 2-6
86% 6-1-1
50% 4-4
TTL
75% 6-2
25% 2-6
62% 5-3
50% 4-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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