HOUSTON
HOUSTONHOU
6-2 | Road
13
UTAH
UTAHUTAH
7-0 | Home
21
Key Game
KEY GAME
Liam Dougherty
#91 | Punter@
KEY GAME
Orion Phillips
#92 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Liam Dougherty | None-None |
| Orion Phillips | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
HOUSTON
29%
UTAH
71%
▲ Edge: +1.10% (UTAH)
HOUSTON
33%
Book Odds: +205
UTAH
70%
Book Odds: -234
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.5
Projected
Book Total
57.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +1.5 (Under)
Over 57.0
46%
Under 57.0
54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.5
UTAH
Book Spread
-6.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Utah)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UTAH -9.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTAH)
HOU By 1-6 points
11.1%
HOU By 7-13 points
7.6%
UTAH By 1-6 points
15.5%
UTAH By 7-13 points
19.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
23
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 25.20
Utah
32.5
UTAH
Book Implied: 31.80
Simulated Score
Houston
31
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 25.20
Utah
30
UTAH
Book Implied: 31.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Utah
Win
71% Win Prob
A
Sim
Houston
Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Utah (-6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.5
C
Sim
Houston (+6.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u57.0
Win
Proj Total: 55.5
C
Sim
o57.0
Loss
Proj Total: 61.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 24, 2026
HOU @ UTAH
13 - 21
Oct 26, 2024
UTAH @ HOU
14 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+66.0% more
Utah: 1.3
vs
Houston: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
23.0
13
UTAH Score
32.5
21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
26.2 / 26.2
24.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards
206.3 / 195.5
226.0 / 86.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.5 / 0.6
0.5 / 0.53
Time of Possession
0.6 / 0.6
0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards
466.4 / 471.7
430.0 / 368.0
Turnovers
1.3 / 0.7
2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +185 / -225
→
+205 / -234
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +6.5 / -6.5
→
+6.5 / -6.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 56.5
→
57
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
6-2-0
(75.0%)
Margin: 15.0
ATS +/-: +4.1
UTAH
Advantage
8-0-0
(100.0%)
Margin: 23.0
ATS +/-: +6.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
3-5-0
(37.5%)
Margin: 15.0
ATS +/-: +4.1
UTAH
Advantage
7-1-0
(87.5%)
Margin: 23.0
ATS +/-: +6.9
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5%
Total +/-: +1.3
UTAH
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTAH
HOU
UTAH
HOU
ML
100%
8-0
100%
8-0
88%
7-1
75%
6-2
ATS
62%
5-3
50%
4-4
25%
2-6
50%
4-4
TTL
62%
5-3
62%
5-3
50%
4-4
50%
4-4
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