Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Texas Tech @ Cincinnati TTU @ CIN

TEXAS TECH

TEXAS TECHTTU

6-1  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sat, Oct 24 • 12:00 PM ET
Nippert Stadium
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

CINCINNATICIN

5-2  |  Home

37
Key Game
Will Karoll
KEY GAME

Will Karoll

#49 | Punter
@
Max Fletcher
KEY GAME

Max Fletcher

#31 | Punter
Player
Will Karoll None-None
Max Fletcher None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEXAS TECH
80%
📊
CINCINNATI
20%
TEXAS TECH 80% Book Odds: -410
CINCINNATI 23% Book Odds: +340
Book Implied: 80.40% / 22.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.0
Projected
Book Total
57.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +6.5 (Under)
Over 57.5 37%
Under 57.5 63%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.6
TEXAS TECH
Book Spread
-11
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.6 points (Texas Tech)
Texas TechTTU (-11) 0 CincinnatiCIN (+11)
Texas Tech Red Raiders (-11) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texas Tech Cover

85.1%

Cincinnati Cover

14.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around TTU -14.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TTU)

TTU By 1-6 points

12.5%

TTU By 7-13 points

18.7%

CIN By 1-6 points

7.5%

CIN By 7-13 points

4.4%

AI Model Projected Score
32.8
TEXAS TECH
Book Implied: 34.20
18.2
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 23.20
Simulated Score
29
TEXAS TECH
Book Implied: 34.20
34
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 23.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Texas Tech Loss
80% Win Prob
A
Sim Cincinnati Win
68% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Texas Tech (-11) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.6
C
Sim Cincinnati (+11) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI u57.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Sim o57.5 Win
Proj Total: 63.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 24, 2026 TTU @ CIN 24 - 37
Sep 28, 2024 CIN @ TTU 41 - 44
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +72.1% more
Texas Tech: 1.4 vs Cincinnati: 0.4
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
Cincinnati: 0.5 vs Texas Tech: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TTU Score 32.8 24
CIN Score 18.2 37
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.3 / 21.6 21.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 200.7 / 209.0 255.0 / 173.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.31 / 0.2
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 460.5 / 432.3 427.0 / 400.0
Turnovers 0.4 / 1.4 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -426 / +330 → -410 / +340 ↓
96%TICKETS4%
95%MONEY5%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -11.5 / +11.5 → -11 / +11 ↑
59%TICKETS41%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: 55.5 → 57.5 ↑
25%TICKETS75%
33%MONEY67%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TTU Advantage
7-1-0 (87.5%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: -5.0
CIN
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TTU
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: -5.0
CIN
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
TTU
6-2-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +2.1
CIN
6-2-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +6.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
TTU
CIN
TTU
ML
57% 4-3
88% 7-1
75% 6-2
100% 8-0
ATS
43% 3-4
62% 5-3
62% 5-3
38% 3-5
TTL
29% 2-5
62% 5-3
50% 4-4
62% 5-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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