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BYU

BYUBYU

6-1  |  Road

31
FINAL
Sat, Oct 24 • 3:30 PM ET
Acrisure Bounce House
View Odds Details →

UCF

UCFUCF

4-3  |  Home

39
Key Game
Fuller Shurtz
KEY GAME

Fuller Shurtz

#19 | Punter
@
Atticus Bertrams
KEY GAME

Atticus Bertrams

#49 | Punter
Player
Fuller Shurtz None-None
Atticus Bertrams None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BYU
83%
📊
UCF
17%
▲ Edge: +7.70% (BYU)
BYU 75% Book Odds: -305
UCF 29% Book Odds: +245
Book Implied: 75.30% / 29%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
49.5
Projected
Book Total
43.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 (Over)
Over 43.5 65%
Under 43.5 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.5
BYU
Book Spread
-7.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (BYU)
BYUBYU (-7.5) 0 UCFUCF (+7.5)
BYU Cougars (-7.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

BYU Cover

88.1%

UCF Cover

11.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around BYU -16.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BYU)

BYU By 1-6 points

11.1%

BYU By 7-13 points

17.8%

UCF By 1-6 points

6.2%

UCF By 7-13 points

3.4%

AI Model Projected Score
33
BYU
Book Implied: 25.50
16.5
UCF
Book Implied: 18
Simulated Score
29
BYU
Book Implied: 25.50
28
UCF
Book Implied: 18
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI BYU Loss
83% Win Prob
A
Sim BYU Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI BYU (-7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -16.5
A
Sim UCF (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o43.5 Win
Proj Total: 49.5
B
Sim o43.5 Win
Proj Total: 57.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 24, 2026 BYU @ UCF 31 - 39
Nov 29, 2025 UCF @ BYU 21 - 41
Oct 26, 2024 BYU @ UCF 37 - 24
Dec 22, 2020 UCF @ BYU 23 - 49
Oct 9, 2014 BYU @ UCF 24 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +26.5% more
BYU: 169.0 vs UCF: 124.3
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +18.0% more
BYU: 0.5 vs UCF: 0.4
Total Yards (L5) +13.8% more
BYU: 398.3 vs UCF: 343.3
Turnovers (L5) +20.0% more
UCF: 1.5 vs BYU: 1.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BYU Score 33.0 31
UCF Score 16.5 39
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.2 / 20.3 26.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 124.3 / 169.0 170.0 / 116.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.47
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 343.3 / 398.3 463.0 / 373.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 1.3 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -278 / +225 → -305 / +245 ↓
96%TICKETS4%
62%MONEY38%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -7 / +7 → -7.5 / +7.5 ↓
78%TICKETS22%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: 45.5 → 43.5 ↓
78%TICKETS22%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BYU Advantage
7-1-0 (87.5%)
Margin: 13.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
UCF
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BYU Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 13.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
UCF
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
BYU
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: +1.4
UCF
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: +3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCF
BYU
UCF
BYU
ML
50% 4-4
86% 6-1
88% 7-1
62% 5-3
ATS
25% 2-6
57% 4-3
50% 4-4
62% 5-3
TTL
62% 5-3
29% 2-5
50% 4-4
38% 3-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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