Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Indiana @ Michigan IU @ MICH

INDIANA

INDIANAIU

7-1  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sat, Oct 24 • 12:00 PM ET
Michigan Stadium
View Odds Details →

MICHIGAN

MICHIGANMICH

4-3  |  Home

6
Key Game
Billy Gowers
KEY GAME

Billy Gowers

#19 | Punter
@
Cam Brown
KEY GAME

Cam Brown

#33 | Punter
Player
Billy Gowers None-None
Cam Brown None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
INDIANA
79%
📊
MICHIGAN
21%
▲ Edge: +4.60% (IU)
INDIANA 75% Book Odds: -292
MICHIGAN 28% Book Odds: +252
Book Implied: 74.50% / 28.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.0
Projected
Book Total
42.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +5.5 (Over)
Over 42.5 63%
Under 42.5 37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
INDIANA
Book Spread
-7.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.5 points (Indiana)
IndianaIU (-7.5) 0 MichiganMICH (+7.5)
Indiana Hoosiers (-7.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Indiana Cover

84.1%

Michigan Cover

15.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around IU -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IU)

IU By 1-6 points

12.9%

IU By 7-13 points

19.0%

MICH By 1-6 points

7.9%

MICH By 7-13 points

4.7%

AI Model Projected Score
31
INDIANA
Book Implied: 25
17
MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 17.50
Simulated Score
23
INDIANA
Book Implied: 25
29
MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 17.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Indiana Win
79% Win Prob
A
Sim Michigan Loss
72% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Indiana (-7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
B
Sim Michigan (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o42.5 Loss
Proj Total: 48.0
B
Sim o42.5 Loss
Proj Total: 52.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 24, 2026 IU @ MICH 13 - 6
Nov 9, 2024 MICH @ IU 15 - 20
Oct 14, 2023 IU @ MICH 7 - 52
Oct 8, 2022 MICH @ IU 31 - 10
Nov 6, 2021 IU @ MICH 7 - 29
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +27.4% more
Indiana: 420.2 vs Michigan: 305.0
First Downs (L5) +14.9% more
Indiana: 19.1 vs Michigan: 16.2
Turnovers (L5) +126.0% more
Michigan: 2.0 vs Indiana: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IU Score 31.0 13
MICH Score 17.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.2 / 19.1 16.0 / 11.0
Rushing Yards 158.6 / 156.3 57.0 / 131.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.3 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards 305.0 / 420.2 224.0 / 212.0
Turnovers 2.0 / 0.7 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -258 / +210 → -292 / +252 ↓
94%TICKETS6%
90%MONEY10%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -6 / +6 → -7.5 / +7.5 ↓
66%TICKETS34%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52.5 → 42.5 ↓
74%TICKETS26%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IU Advantage
8-1-0 (88.9%)
Margin: 20.0 ATS +/-: -4.5
MICH
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: -5.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IU
1-8-0 (11.1%)
Margin: 20.0 ATS +/-: -4.5
MICH Advantage
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: -5.5
⚖️ Over/Under
IU
3-6-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -7.4
MICH
2-6-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -7.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MICH
IU
MICH
IU
ML
75% 6-2
89% 8-1
62% 5-3
56% 5-4
ATS
62% 5-3
33% 3-6
88% 7-1
78% 7-2
TTL
25% 2-6
33% 3-6
38% 3-5
56% 5-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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