Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Texas A&M @ Alabama TA&M @ ALA

TEXAS A&M

TEXAS A&MTA&M

4-4  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Oct 24 • 3:30 PM ET
Bryant-Denny Stadium
View Odds Details →

ALABAMA

ALABAMAALA

6-2  |  Home

31
Key Game
David Olano
KEY GAME

David Olano

#24 | Place kicker
@
Alex Asparuhov
KEY GAME

Alex Asparuhov

#32 | Punter
Player
David Olano None-None
Alex Asparuhov None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEXAS A&M
29%
📊
ALABAMA
71%
▲ Edge: +9.60% (TA&M)
TEXAS A&M 19% Book Odds: +425
ALABAMA 85% Book Odds: -575
Book Implied: 19% / 85.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
57.0
Projected
Book Total
49.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +7.5 (Over)
Over 49.5 64%
Under 49.5 36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+9.4
TEXAS A&M
Book Spread
+13.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.1 points (Texas A&M)
Texas A&MTA&M (+13.5) 0 AlabamaALA (-13.5)
Texas A&M Aggies (+13.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texas A&M Cover

74.9%

Alabama Cover

25.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TA&M +9.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TA&M)

TA&M By 1-6 points

11.2%

TA&M By 7-13 points

7.7%

ALA By 1-6 points

15.5%

ALA By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
23.8
TEXAS A&M
Book Implied: 18
33.2
ALABAMA
Book Implied: 31.50
Simulated Score
22
TEXAS A&M
Book Implied: 18
34
ALABAMA
Book Implied: 31.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Alabama Win
71% Win Prob
A
Sim Alabama Win
88% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Texas A&M (+13.5) Win
Proj Spread: +9.4
B
Sim Texas A&M (+13.5) Win
Proj Spread: +12.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o49.5 Win
Proj Total: 57.0
B
Sim o49.5 Win
Proj Total: 56.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 24, 2026 TA&M @ ALA 20 - 31
Oct 7, 2023 ALA @ TA&M 26 - 20
Oct 8, 2022 TA&M @ ALA 20 - 24
Oct 9, 2021 ALA @ TA&M 38 - 41
Oct 3, 2020 TA&M @ ALA 24 - 52
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +108.0% more
Alabama: 2.1 vs Texas A&M: 1.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +24.6% more
Texas A&M: 169.8 vs Alabama: 128.0
First Downs (L5) +11.4% more
Texas A&M: 19.8 vs Alabama: 17.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
Texas A&M: 0.5 vs Alabama: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TA&M Score 23.8 20
ALA Score 33.2 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.5 / 19.8 20.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 128.0 / 169.8 68.0 / 115.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.42 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 349.6 / 370.7 379.0 / 278.0
Turnovers 2.1 / 1.0 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +550 / -800 → +425 / -575 ↓
2%TICKETS98%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +15.5 / -15.5 → +13.5 / -13.5 ↓
36%TICKETS64%
31%MONEY69%
Total (O/U)
Open: 53.5 → 49.5 ↓
76%TICKETS24%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TA&M
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 9.4 ATS +/-: -3.4
ALA Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 17.0 ATS +/-: +4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TA&M
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 9.4 ATS +/-: -3.4
ALA
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 17.0 ATS +/-: +4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
TA&M
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -4.5
ALA
6-2-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +7.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ALA
TA&M
ALA
TA&M
ML
88% 7-1
62% 5-3
38% 3-5
75% 6-2
ATS
75% 6-2
50% 4-4
38% 3-5
38% 3-5
TTL
50% 4-4
25% 2-6
62% 5-3
50% 4-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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