Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Ole Miss @ Texas MISS @ TEX

OLE MISS

OLE MISSMISS

5-2  |  Road

27
FINAL
Sat, Oct 24 • 7:30 PM ET
DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

TEXASTEX

5-2  |  Home

34
Key Game
Lucas Carneiro
KEY GAME

Lucas Carneiro

#17 | Place kicker
@
Mac Chiumento
KEY GAME

Mac Chiumento

#43 | Punter
Player
Lucas Carneiro None-None
Mac Chiumento None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OLE MISS
52%
📊
TEXAS
48%
▲ Edge: +8.10% (MISS)
OLE MISS 44% Book Odds: +130
TEXAS 61% Book Odds: -155
Book Implied: 43.50% / 60.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.0
Projected
Book Total
55.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.5 (Under)
Over 55.5 49%
Under 55.5 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
OLE MISS
Book Spread
+3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.4 points (Ole Miss)
Ole MissMISS (+3) 0 TexasTEX (-3)
Ole Miss Rebels (+3) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ole Miss Cover

51.1%

Texas Cover

48.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MISS -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MISS)

MISS By 1-6 points

16.6%

MISS By 7-13 points

15.7%

TEX By 1-6 points

16.3%

TEX By 7-13 points

15.1%

AI Model Projected Score
27.2
OLE MISS
Book Implied: 26.20
26.8
TEXAS
Book Implied: 29.20
Simulated Score
29
OLE MISS
Book Implied: 26.20
31
TEXAS
Book Implied: 29.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Ole Miss Loss
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Texas Win
57% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Ole Miss (+3) Loss
Proj Spread: -0.4
C
Sim Ole Miss (+3) Loss
Proj Spread: +2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u55.5 Loss
Proj Total: 54.0
D
Sim o55.5 Win
Proj Total: 60.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 24, 2026 MISS @ TEX 27 - 34
Sep 14, 2013 MISS @ TEX 44 - 23
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +35.3% more
Ole Miss: 184.4 vs Texas: 119.3
First Downs (L5) +31.6% more
Ole Miss: 25.1 vs Texas: 17.2
Total Yards (L5) +26.5% more
Ole Miss: 455.4 vs Texas: 334.7
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +19.0% more
Ole Miss: 0.5 vs Texas: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MISS Score 27.2 27
TEX Score 26.8 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.2 / 25.1 23.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 119.3 / 184.4 207.0 / 113.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.23 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.58 / 0.42
Total Yards 334.7 / 455.4 419.0 / 363.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.2 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +190 / -230 → +130 / -155 ↓
60%TICKETS40%
63%MONEY37%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +6.5 / -6.5 → +3 / -3 ↓
82%TICKETS18%
80%MONEY20%
Total (O/U)
Open: 53.5 → 55.5 ↑
53%TICKETS47%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MISS Advantage
5-1-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 13.7 ATS +/-: +4.2
TEX
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 13.6 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MISS Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 13.7 ATS +/-: +4.2
TEX
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: 13.6 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MISS
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +4.0
TEX
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -5.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
MISS
TEX
MISS
ML
62% 5-3
75% 6-2
38% 3-5
88% 7-1
ATS
38% 3-5
50% 4-4
50% 4-4
50% 4-4
TTL
38% 3-5
25% 2-6
38% 3-5
62% 5-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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