ARMY
ARMYARMY
5-2 | Road
38
TULSA
TULSATLSA
4-4 | Home
35
Key Game
KEY GAME
Dawson Jones
#95 | Place kicker@
KEY GAME
Max Tulen
#29 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Dawson Jones | None-None |
| Max Tulen | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ARMY
64%
TULSA
36%
▲ Edge: +9.70% (ARMY)
ARMY
54%
Book Odds: -118
TULSA
51%
Book Odds: -102
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.0
Projected
Book Total
53.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +2.5 (Under)
Over 53.5
44%
Under 53.5
56%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
ARMY
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 points (Army)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ARMY -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARMY)
ARMY By 1-6 points
16.7%
ARMY By 7-13 points
19.0%
TLSA By 1-6 points
13.5%
TLSA By 7-13 points
10.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Army
28.5
ARMY
Book Implied: 27.50
Tulsa
22.5
TULSA
Book Implied: 26
Simulated Score
Army
26
ARMY
Book Implied: 27.50
Tulsa
24
TULSA
Book Implied: 26
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Army
Win
64% Win Prob
B
Sim
Army
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Army (-1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
B
Sim
Army (-1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
u53.5
Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Sim
u53.5
Loss
Proj Total: 50.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 23, 2026
ARMY @ TLSA
38 - 35
Nov 22, 2025
TLSA @ ARMY
26 - 25
Oct 5, 2024
ARMY @ TLSA
49 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5)
+59.9% more
Army: 362.1
vs
Tulsa: 145.1
Third Down Efficiency (L5)
+13.0% more
Army: 0.5
vs
Tulsa: 0.4
First Downs (L5)
+10.9% more
Army: 21.8
vs
Tulsa: 19.4
Time of Possession (L5)
+10.0% more
Army: 0.6
vs
Tulsa: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARMY Score
28.5
38
TLSA Score
22.5
35
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
19.4 / 21.8
20.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards
145.1 / 362.1
148.0 / 275.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.5
0.5 / 0.36
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.6
0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards
373.7 / 412.2
410.0 / 384.0
Turnovers
0.4 / 0.3
1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -108 / -108
→
-118 / -102
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1 / -1
→
-1.5 / +1.5
↓
Total (O/U)
Open: 53
→
53.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARMY
5-4-0
(55.6%)
Margin: 6.9
ATS +/-: +1.4
TLSA
5-4-0
(55.6%)
Margin: 10.3
ATS +/-: +6.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARMY
3-5-1
(37.5%)
Margin: 6.9
ATS +/-: +1.4
TLSA
Advantage
5-4-0
(55.6%)
Margin: 10.3
ATS +/-: +6.9
⚖️ Over/Under
ARMY
7-2-0
O: 77.8% / U: 22.2%
Total +/-: +7.2
TLSA
5-4-0
O: 55.6% / U: 44.4%
Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TLSA
ARMY
TLSA
ARMY
ML
67%
6-3
78%
7-2
89%
8-1
78%
7-2
ATS
56%
5-4
67%
6-3
33%
3-6
67%
6-3
TTL
56%
5-4
33%
3-6
67%
6-3
33%
3-6
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