MASSACHUSETTS
UMASSMASS
4-4 | Road
16
UCONN
UCONNCONN
4-3 | Home
35
Key Game
KEY GAME
Edward Phillipson
#43 | Punter@
👤
KEY GAME
Tommy Warner
#49 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Edward Phillipson | None-None |
| Tommy Warner | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UMASS
22%
UCONN
78%
▲ Edge: +2% (MASS)
UMASS
20%
Book Odds: +390
UCONN
84%
Book Odds: -520
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.4
Projected
Book Total
53.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.9 (Over)
Over 53.5
55%
Under 53.5
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
UCONN
Book Spread
-12.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (UConn)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CONN -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CONN)
MASS By 1-6 points
8.6%
MASS By 7-13 points
5.3%
CONN By 1-6 points
13.5%
CONN By 7-13 points
19.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Massachusetts
21.2
MASSACHUSETTS
Book Implied: 20.50
UConn
34.2
UCONN
Book Implied: 33
Simulated Score
Massachusetts
18
MASSACHUSETTS
Book Implied: 20.50
UConn
35
UCONN
Book Implied: 33
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
UConn
Win
78% Win Prob
A
Sim
UConn
Win
95% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
UConn (-12.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
UConn (-12.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o53.5
Loss
Proj Total: 55.4
C
Sim
u53.5
Win
Proj Total: 53.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 23, 2026
MASS @ CONN
16 - 35
Nov 30, 2024
CONN @ MASS
47 - 42
Nov 25, 2023
CONN @ MASS
31 - 18
Nov 4, 2022
MASS @ CONN
10 - 27
Oct 9, 2021
CONN @ MASS
13 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5)
+42.1% more
UConn: 199.9
vs
Massachusetts: 140.7
Total Yards (L5)
+39.8% more
UConn: 457.8
vs
Massachusetts: 327.3
First Downs (L5)
+35.4% more
UConn: 22.7
vs
Massachusetts: 16.7
Turnovers (L5)
+32.6% more
Massachusetts: 1.4
vs
UConn: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MASS Score
21.2
16
CONN Score
34.2
35
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
22.7 / 16.7
21.0 / 14.0
Rushing Yards
199.9 / 140.7
265.0 / 53.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.4
0.33 / 0.14
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards
457.8 / 327.3
438.0 / 303.0
Turnovers
0.9 / 1.4
0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +500 / -700
→
+390 / -520
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +14.5 / -14.5
→
+12.5 / -12.5
↓
Total (O/U)
Open: 50.5
→
53.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MASS
Advantage
5-4-0
(55.6%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: +3.4
CONN
3-3-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +10.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MASS
4-5-0
(44.4%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: +3.4
CONN
Advantage
4-1-1
(80.0%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +10.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MASS
4-5-0
O: 44.4% / U: 55.6%
Total +/-: -0.3
CONN
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +7.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CONN
MASS
CONN
MASS
ML
62%
5-3
57%
4-3
50%
4-4
56%
5-4
ATS
50%
4-4
43%
3-4
62%
5-3
56%
5-4
TTL
38%
3-5
43%
3-4
75%
6-2
44%
4-5
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