Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Duke @ Virginia DUKE @ UVA

DUKE

DUKEDUKE

5-2  |  Road

19
FINAL
Fri, Oct 23 • 7:00 PM ET
Scott Stadium
View Odds Details →

VIRGINIA

VIRGINIAUVA

4-4  |  Home

16
Key Game
Kade Reynoldson
KEY GAME

Kade Reynoldson

#41 | Punter
@
Will Bettridge
KEY GAME

Will Bettridge

#41 | Place kicker
Player
Kade Reynoldson None-None
Will Bettridge None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
DUKE
55%
📊
VIRGINIA
45%
▲ Edge: +9.20% (DUKE)
DUKE 46% Book Odds: +118
VIRGINIA 57% Book Odds: -130
Book Implied: 45.90% / 56.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.4
Projected
Book Total
47.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +3.4 (Over)
Over 47.0 57%
Under 47.0 43%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
DUKE
Book Spread
+2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 points (Duke)
DukeDUKE (+2.5) 0 VirginiaUVA (-2.5)
Duke Blue Devils (+2.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Duke Cover

55.7%

Virginia Cover

44.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around DUKE -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DUKE)

DUKE By 1-6 points

16.9%

DUKE By 7-13 points

16.8%

UVA By 1-6 points

15.7%

UVA By 7-13 points

13.8%

AI Model Projected Score
26.2
DUKE
Book Implied: 22.20
24.2
VIRGINIA
Book Implied: 24.80
Simulated Score
23
DUKE
Book Implied: 22.20
30
VIRGINIA
Book Implied: 24.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Duke Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim Virginia Loss
75% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Duke (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
B
Sim Virginia (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o47.0 Loss
Proj Total: 50.4
C
Sim o47.0 Loss
Proj Total: 53.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 23, 2026 DUKE @ UVA 19 - 16
Dec 6, 2025 DUKE @ UVA 27 - 20
Nov 15, 2025 UVA @ DUKE 34 - 17
Nov 18, 2023 DUKE @ UVA 27 - 30
Oct 1, 2022 UVA @ DUKE 17 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +28.6% more
Duke: 180.3 vs Virginia: 128.7
Total Yards (L5) +28.0% more
Duke: 431.2 vs Virginia: 310.6
First Downs (L5) +18.3% more
Duke: 22.8 vs Virginia: 18.6
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +13.0% more
Duke: 0.5 vs Virginia: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DUKE Score 26.2 19
UVA Score 24.2 16
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.6 / 22.8 22.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 128.7 / 180.3 195.0 / 71.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.29 / 0.2
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.65 / 0.35
Total Yards 310.6 / 431.2 353.0 / 327.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 0.6 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +225 / -278 → +118 / -130 ↓
28%TICKETS72%
43%MONEY57%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +6.5 / -6.5 → +2.5 / -2.5 ↓
51%TICKETS49%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: 53.5 → 47 ↓
74%TICKETS26%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DUKE Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 17.8 ATS +/-: +9.2
UVA
4-5-0 (44.4%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -5.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DUKE Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 17.8 ATS +/-: +9.2
UVA
3-5-1 (37.5%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -5.7
⚖️ Over/Under
DUKE
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -4.4
UVA
4-5-0
O: 44.4% / U: 55.6% Total +/-: -2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UVA
DUKE
UVA
DUKE
ML
78% 7-2
75% 6-2
78% 7-2
62% 5-3
ATS
38% 3-5-1
62% 5-3
38% 3-5-1
50% 4-4
TTL
56% 5-4
29% 2-5-1
22% 2-7
29% 2-5-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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