Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / East Carolina @ Memphis ECU @ MEM

EAST CAROLINA

EAST CAROLINAECU

3-4  |  Road

34
FINAL
Thu, Oct 22 • 7:30 PM ET
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
View Odds Details →

MEMPHIS

MEMPHISMEM

6-2  |  Home

41
Key Game
Elliot Huether
KEY GAME

Elliot Huether

#83 | Punter
@
Philippe Laforge
KEY GAME

Philippe Laforge

#80 | Place kicker
Player
Elliot Huether None-None
Philippe Laforge None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
EAST CAROLINA
44%
📊
MEMPHIS
56%
▲ Edge: +21% (ECU)
EAST CAROLINA 23% Book Odds: +330
MEMPHIS 81% Book Odds: -426
Book Implied: 23.30% / 81%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.5
Projected
Book Total
55.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +2.0 (Under)
Over 55.5 47%
Under 55.5 53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.5
EAST CAROLINA
Book Spread
+10.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (East Carolina)
East CarolinaECU (+10.5) 0 MemphisMEM (-10.5)
East Carolina Pirates (+10.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

East Carolina Cover

57.1%

Memphis Cover

42.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ECU +2.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ECU)

ECU By 1-6 points

15.5%

ECU By 7-13 points

13.4%

MEM By 1-6 points

16.9%

MEM By 7-13 points

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
25.5
EAST CAROLINA
Book Implied: 22.50
28
MEMPHIS
Book Implied: 33
Simulated Score
18
EAST CAROLINA
Book Implied: 22.50
44
MEMPHIS
Book Implied: 33
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Memphis Win
56% Win Prob
D
Sim Memphis Win
99% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI East Carolina (+10.5) Win
Proj Spread: +2.5
A
Sim Memphis (-10.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -26.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u55.5 Loss
Proj Total: 53.5
D
Sim o55.5 Win
Proj Total: 62.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 22, 2026 ECU @ MEM 34 - 41
Nov 15, 2025 MEM @ ECU 27 - 31
Oct 15, 2022 MEM @ ECU 45 - 47
Nov 13, 2021 ECU @ MEM 30 - 29
Nov 3, 2018 MEM @ ECU 59 - 41
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +41.8% more
Memphis: 2.3 vs East Carolina: 1.7
Total Yards (L5) +38.2% more
Memphis: 495.0 vs East Carolina: 358.2
First Downs (L5) +37.7% more
Memphis: 26.4 vs East Carolina: 19.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +21.8% more
Memphis: 220.7 vs East Carolina: 181.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ECU Score 25.5 34
MEM Score 28.0 41
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 26.4 / 19.2 24.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 220.7 / 181.2 164.0 / 161.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.27 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 495.0 / 358.2 484.0 / 421.0
Turnovers 2.3 / 1.7 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +310 / -395 → +330 / -426 ↑
5%TICKETS95%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +9.5 / -9.5 → +10.5 / -10.5 ↑
42%TICKETS58%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: 53.5 → 55.5 ↑
20%TICKETS80%
26%MONEY74%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ECU
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-: -2.9
MEM Advantage
7-2-0 (77.8%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +4.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ECU
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-: -2.9
MEM Advantage
5-4-0 (55.6%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +4.3
⚖️ Over/Under
ECU
2-6-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -4.1
MEM
6-3-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
ECU
MEM
ECU
ML
89% 8-1
62% 5-3
78% 7-2
62% 5-3
ATS
67% 6-3
50% 4-4
44% 4-5
25% 2-6
TTL
33% 3-6
38% 3-5
44% 4-5
75% 6-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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