Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Liberty @ Kennesaw St LIB @ KENN

LIBERTY

LIBERTYLIB

6-1  |  Road

34
FINAL
Thu, Oct 22 • 7:00 PM ET
Walens Family Field at Fifth Third Stadium
View Odds Details →

KENNESAW STATE

KENNESAW STKENN

1-6  |  Home

6
Key Game
Sam Crossan
KEY GAME

Sam Crossan

#49 | Place kicker
@
Matt McKenzie
KEY GAME

Matt McKenzie

#34 | Punter
Player
Sam Crossan None-None
Matt McKenzie None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LIBERTY
46%
📊
KENNESAW ST
54%
▲ Edge: +29.30% (KENN)
LIBERTY 79% Book Odds: -380
KENNESAW ST 25% Book Odds: +300
Book Implied: 79.20% / 25%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.0
Projected
Book Total
50.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 50.5 49%
Under 50.5 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
KENNESAW STATE
Book Spread
+8.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.5 points (Kennesaw State)
LibertyLIB (-8.5) 0 Kennesaw StKENN (+8.5)
Kennesaw State Owls (+8.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Liberty Cover

44.3%

Kennesaw St Cover

55.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around KENN -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KENN)

LIB By 1-6 points

15.7%

LIB By 7-13 points

13.8%

KENN By 1-6 points

16.9%

KENN By 7-13 points

16.8%

AI Model Projected Score
24
LIBERTY
Book Implied: 29.50
26
KENNESAW STATE
Book Implied: 21
Simulated Score
21
LIBERTY
Book Implied: 29.50
31
KENNESAW STATE
Book Implied: 21
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Kennesaw St Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Sim Kennesaw St Loss
84% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Kennesaw St (+8.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
A
Sim Kennesaw St (+8.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u50.5 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
D
Sim o50.5 Loss
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 22, 2026 LIB @ KENN 34 - 6
Nov 29, 2025 KENN @ LIB 48 - 42
Oct 23, 2024 LIB @ KENN 24 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +17.0% more
Kennesaw State: 0.9 vs Liberty: 0.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +53.0% more
Liberty: 259.5 vs Kennesaw State: 122.1
Total Yards (L5) +16.1% more
Liberty: 429.2 vs Kennesaw State: 360.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +10.0% more
Liberty: 0.5 vs Kennesaw State: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LIB Score 24.0 34
KENN Score 26.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.5 / 22.3 15.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 122.1 / 259.5 62.0 / 215.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.35 / 0.3
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.38 / 0.62
Total Yards 360.0 / 429.2 297.0 / 402.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 0.7 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -340 / +270 → -380 / +300 ↓
0%TICKETS100%
0%MONEY100%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -8.5 / +8.5 → -8.5 / +8.5
0%TICKETS100%
0%MONEY100%
Total (O/U)
Open: 47.5 → 50.5 ↑
0%TICKETS100%
0%MONEY100%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LIB Advantage
7-1-0 (87.5%)
Margin: 20.3 ATS +/-: +10.0
KENN
2-6-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: +0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LIB Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 20.3 ATS +/-: +10.0
KENN
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: +0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
LIB
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -3.5
KENN
2-6-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -4.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KENN
LIB
KENN
LIB
ML
29% 2-5
62% 5-3
75% 6-2
75% 6-2
ATS
57% 4-3
25% 2-6
75% 6-2
38% 3-5
TTL
57% 4-3
62% 5-3
38% 3-5
50% 4-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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