Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Missouri St @ Delaware MOST @ DEL

MISSOURI STATE

MISSOURI STMOST

2-5  |  Road

38
FINAL
Tue, Oct 20 • 7:00 PM ET
Delaware Stadium
View Odds Details →

DELAWARE

DELAWAREDEL

3-4  |  Home

61
Key Game
Stewart McDonald
KEY GAME

Stewart McDonald

#25 | Punter
@
Kason Mullis
KEY GAME

Kason Mullis

#92 | Place kicker
Player
Stewart McDonald None-None
Kason Mullis None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MISSOURI ST
40%
📊
DELAWARE
60%
MISSOURI ST 41% Book Odds: +144
DELAWARE 62% Book Odds: -160
Book Implied: 41% / 61.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
54.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +2.0 (Under)
Over 54.0 45%
Under 54.0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
DELAWARE
Book Spread
-3.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Delaware)
Missouri StMOST (+3.5) 0 DelawareDEL (-3.5)
Delaware Blue Hens (-3.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Missouri St Cover

38.8%

Delaware Cover

61.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around DEL -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEL)

MOST By 1-6 points

14.7%

MOST By 7-13 points

12.1%

DEL By 1-6 points

17.0%

DEL By 7-13 points

18.0%

AI Model Projected Score
24
MISSOURI STATE
Book Implied: 25.20
28
DELAWARE
Book Implied: 28.80
Simulated Score
24
MISSOURI STATE
Book Implied: 25.20
31
DELAWARE
Book Implied: 28.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Delaware Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim Delaware Win
75% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Delaware (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Delaware (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u54.0 Loss
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Sim o54.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 20, 2026 MOST @ DEL 38 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +27.4% more
Delaware: 1.4 vs Missouri State: 1.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +27.2% more
Missouri State: 126.1 vs Delaware: 91.8
First Downs (L5) +9.0% more
Missouri State: 20.8 vs Delaware: 19.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MOST Score 24.0 38
DEL Score 28.0 61
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.0 / 20.8 26.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 91.8 / 126.1 232.0 / 94.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.42 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.58 / 0.42
Total Yards 353.8 / 379.4 482.0 / 431.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.1 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +120 / -142 → +144 / -160 ↑
0%TICKETS100%
0%MONEY100%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +3 / -3 → +3.5 / -3.5 ↑
0%TICKETS100%
0%MONEY100%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52.5 → 54 ↑
0%TICKETS100%
0%MONEY100%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MOST
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -6.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
DEL Advantage
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: +2.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MOST
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -6.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
DEL Advantage
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: +2.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MOST
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: +0.9
DEL
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEL
MOST
DEL
MOST
ML
62% 5-3
75% 6-2
75% 6-2
88% 7-1
ATS
38% 3-5
62% 5-3
50% 4-4
62% 5-3
TTL
38% 3-5
38% 3-5
75% 6-2
75% 6-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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