FLORIDA
PANTHERSFLA
2-2-2 | Road
3
BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
3-3-0 | Home
5
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Jacob Markstrom
#25 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
#1 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom | None-None | 6.00 | 0.818 | -- |
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | None-None | 1.79 | 0.929 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
6.00
GAA
Ldr 1.79
0.818
Save %
Ldr 0.929
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
41%
SABRES
59%
▲ Edge: +5.20% (BUF)
PANTHERS
51%
Book Odds: -105
SABRES
54%
Book Odds: -115
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
5.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 5.5
59%
Under 5.5
41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
BUFFALO
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Buffalo)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around BUF -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)
FLA By 1 goal
8.6%
FLA By 2-3 goals
5.5%
BUF By 1 goal
18.9%
BUF By 2-3 goals
34.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Florida
2.2
FLORIDA
Book Implied: 2
Buffalo
3.8
BUFFALO
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
Florida
4
FLORIDA
Book Implied: 2
Buffalo
2
BUFFALO
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Sabres
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Sim
Panthers
Loss
84% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Sabres (-1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.6
D
Sim
Panthers (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o5.5
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Sim
o5.5
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 12, 2026
FLA @ BUF
3 - 5
Feb 27, 2026
BUF @ FLA
3 - 2
Feb 2, 2026
BUF @ FLA
5 - 3
Jan 12, 2026
FLA @ BUF
4 - 3
Oct 18, 2025
FLA @ BUF
0 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+30.9% more
Buffalo: 12.9
vs
Florida: 9.8
Power Play % (L5)
+6.7%
Buffalo: 8.3%
vs
Florida: 1.7%
Faceoff % (L5)
+1.7%
Buffalo: 46.2%
vs
Florida: 44.5%
Takeaways (L5)
+37.3% more
Florida: 3.8
vs
Buffalo: 2.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
FLA Score
2.2
3
BUF Score
3.8
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
12.9 / 9.8
17.0 / 5.0
Faceoff %
46.2 / 44.5
47.4 / 52.6
Hits
19.8 / 31.0
14.0 / 42.0
Power Play %
8.3 / 1.7
40.0 / 50.0
Shots on Goal
25.8 / 27.3
32.0 / 23.0
Takeaways
2.4 / 3.8
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -112 / -108
→
-105 / -115
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5
→
5.5
↓
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
FLA
BUF
FLA
ML
85%
11-2
64%
9-5
46%
6-7
43%
6-8
ATS
54%
7-6
57%
8-6
69%
9-4
43%
6-8
TTL
46%
6-7
57%
8-6
38%
5-8
43%
6-8
Contextual Game News
