Home / NHL Projections NHL / Oilers @ Sharks EDM @ SJ

EDMONTON

OILERSEDM

4-0-1  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Oct 10 • 4:00 PM ET
SAP Center at San Jose
View Odds Details →

SAN JOSE

SHARKSSJ

3-2-0  |  Home

1
Goaltending
Tristan Jarry
GOALTENDER

Tristan Jarry

#35 | Goaltender
@
Yaroslav Askarov
GOALTENDER

Yaroslav Askarov

#30 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Tristan Jarry None-None 1.00 0.950 --
Yaroslav Askarov None-None 3.19 0.850 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
1.00 Ldr GAA 3.19
0.950 Ldr Save % 0.850
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
OILERS
57%
📊
SHARKS
43%
OILERS 60% Book Odds: -148
SHARKS 45% Book Odds: +124
Book Implied: 59.70% / 44.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 (Over)
Over 6.5 80%
Under 6.5 20%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
SAN JOSE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
OilersEDM (-1.5) 0 SharksSJ (+1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Oilers Cover

22.7%

Sharks Cover

77.3%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around SJ +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SJ)

EDM By 1 goal

19.1%

EDM By 2-3 goals

34.1%

SJ By 1 goal

9.2%

SJ By 2-3 goals

6.1%

AI Model Projected Score
5
EDMONTON
Book Implied: 4
3.5
SAN JOSE
Book Implied: 2.50
Simulated Score
3
EDMONTON
Book Implied: 4
2
SAN JOSE
Book Implied: 2.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Oilers Win
57% Win Prob
D
Sim Oilers Win
70% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Sharks (-1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.5
D
Sim Sharks (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI o6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.5
A
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2026 EDM @ SJ 3 - 1
Apr 8, 2026 EDM @ SJ 5 - 2
Mar 17, 2026 SJ @ EDM 3 - 5
Feb 28, 2026 EDM @ SJ 4 - 5
Jan 29, 2026 SJ @ EDM 3 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Faceoff % (L5) +9.8%
Edmonton: 55.4% vs San Jose: 45.6%
Shots on Goal (L5) +8.6% more
Edmonton: 27.4 vs San Jose: 25.1
Power Play % (L5) +6.9%
Edmonton: 21.7% vs San Jose: 14.8%
Takeaways (L5) +32.8% more
San Jose: 4.9 vs Edmonton: 3.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
EDM Score 5.0 3
SJ Score 3.5 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 17.2 / 13.9 11.0 / 9.0
Faceoff % 45.6 / 55.4 41.5 / 58.5
Hits 29.3 / 29.3 34.0 / 24.0
Power Play % 1480.0 / 2167.0 0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 25.1 / 27.4 20.0 / 20.0
Takeaways 4.9 / 3.7 6.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -142 / +120 → -148 / +124 ↓
85%TICKETS15%
90%MONEY10%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
68%TICKETS32%
91%MONEY9%
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5 → 6.5
93%TICKETS7%
96%MONEY4%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SJ
EDM
SJ
EDM
ML
54% 7-6
54% 7-6
31% 4-9
54% 7-6
ATS
46% 6-7
54% 7-6
38% 5-8
46% 6-7
TTL
31% 4-9
8% 1-12
46% 6-7
31% 4-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
NHL Early Surprises: Hellebuyck, McDavid, and Rookie Fowler Stea…
yahoo 1 hour, 59 minutes ago
Jarry Shines with 24-Save Shutout as Oilers Blank Flames 4-0
timesargus 8 hours, 15 minutes ago
Jarry's Shutout, McDavid's Record Streak Lift Oilers Past Flames…
wtop 8 hours, 15 minutes ago
Postava's Stellar Debut Lifts Red Wings Past Oilers in Shootout …
yahoo 2 days, 7 hours ago
Red Wings Wrap Up Road Trip Against High-Flying Oilers
yahoo 2 days, 19 hours ago