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ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

94-68  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sun, Oct 4 • 8:00 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

100-62  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Ray Kerr
STARTING PITCHER

Ray Kerr

#62 | Relief Pitcher
@
Blake Snell
STARTING PITCHER

Blake Snell

#7 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Ray Kerr 0-0 0.00 0.60 3.1 2
Blake Snell 0-0 0.00 0.00 -- --
0-0 W-L 0-0
0.00 ERA 0.00
0.60 WHIP Ldr 0.00
3.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) --
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
44%
📊
DODGERS
56%
▲ Edge: +7.60% (ATL)
BRAVES 37% Book Odds: +174
DODGERS 68% Book Odds: -213
Book Implied: 36.50% / 68.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 7.5 65%
Under 7.5 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Los Angeles)
BravesATL (+1.5) 0 DodgersLAD (-1.5)
Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Braves Cover

30.9%

Dodgers Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAD -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

ATL By 1-2 runs

13.6%

ATL By 3-4 runs

7.8%

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.6%

LAD By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 3
5.5
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
3
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 3
5
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dodgers Loss
56% Win Prob
D
Sim Dodgers Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dodgers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Sim Dodgers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 7, 2026 LAD @ ATL 4 - 1
Oct 6, 2026 LAD @ ATL 3 - 1
Oct 4, 2026 ATL @ LAD 3 - 2
Oct 3, 2026 ATL @ LAD 3 - 5
Aug 27, 2026 LAD @ ATL 0 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta ATL
vs
Los Angeles LAD
1
Games Played
▲ 162
5.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.94
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .257
.324
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .338
.433 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.424
.757
OPS
▲ .762
1
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +20300.0% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs Atlanta: 1.0
Hits (L5) +45.4% more
Los Angeles: 8.3 vs Atlanta: 5.7
Total Bases (L5) +26.3% more
Los Angeles: 15.2 vs Atlanta: 12.0
Walks (L5) +14.7% more
Los Angeles: 3.5 vs Atlanta: 3.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 3.5 3
LAD Score 5.5 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.0 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.3 / 5.7 6.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.9 / 1.8 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.4 / 8.1 9.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 15.2 / 12.0 13.0 / 9.0
Walks 3.5 / 3.1 3.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +182 / -223 → +174 / -213 ↓
15%TICKETS85%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
23%TICKETS77%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 7.5 ↓
87%TICKETS13%
91%MONEY9%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
ATL
LAD
ATL
ML
56% 92-73
46% 77-90
48% 79-87
54% 90-78
ATS
59% 98-67
57% 96-71
43% 72-94
52% 87-81
TTL
48% 77-82-6
53% 83-73-11
44% 70-90-6
49% 76-80-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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