CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
85-77 | Road
9
CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
84-78 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Parker Messick
#77 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Hagen Smith
#32 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Messick | 0-1 | 4.15 | 1.38 | 4.1 | 6 |
| Hagen Smith | 0-0 | 1.42 | 1.26 | 6.1 | 6 |
0-1
W-L
0-0
4.15
ERA
Ldr 1.42
1.38
WHIP
Ldr 1.26
4.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.1
6
K (Strikeouts)
6
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
48%
WHITE SOX
52%
▲ Edge: +1.20% (CHW)
GUARDIANS
54%
Book Odds: -117
WHITE SOX
51%
Book Odds: -103
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.0 (Over)
Over 7.0
69%
Under 7.0
31%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHW -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHW)
CLE By 1-2 runs
13.6%
CLE By 3-4 runs
7.8%
CHW By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CHW By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
3.5
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 4.20
Chicago
5.5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 2.80
Simulated Score
Cleveland
3
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 4.20
Chicago
6
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 2.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
White Sox
Loss
52% Win Prob
D
Sim
White Sox
Loss
77% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
White Sox (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Sim
White Sox (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 10, 2026
CHW @ CLE
0 - 2
Oct 8, 2026
CLE @ CHW
9 - 5
Oct 7, 2026
CLE @ CHW
9 - 3
Oct 5, 2026
CHW @ CLE
4 - 3
Oct 3, 2026
CHW @ CLE
3 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Chicago
CHW
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.19
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.324
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.415
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.412
.696
OPS
▲
.826
162
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+76.6% more
Chicago: 13.1
vs
Cleveland: 7.4
Runs per Game (Season)
+43.2% more
Chicago: 6.0
vs
Cleveland: 4.2
OPS (Season)
+13.0%
Chicago: 82.6%
vs
Cleveland: 69.6%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+9.9%
Chicago: 41.5%
vs
Cleveland: 31.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
3.5
9
CHW Score
5.5
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.1 / 7.8
8.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 0.7
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
13.1 / 7.4
12.0 / 3.0
Total Bases
10.7 / 13.3
12.0 / 17.0
Walks
3.4 / 5.9
8.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +100 / -120
→
-117 / -103
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
7
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
90-83-0
(52.0%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
88-81-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(49.7%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
84-88-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
CHW
97-70-2
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
CLE
CHW
CLE
ML
49%
82-87
54%
92-77
56%
94-75
49%
84-86
ATS
59%
100-69
57%
97-72
55%
93-76
57%
97-73
TTL
58%
97-70-2
55%
92-75-2
51%
85-82-2
43%
72-95-2
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