CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
85-77 | Road
9
CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
84-78 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Daniel Espino
#41 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Sean Newcomb
#15 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Espino | 0-0 | 0.00 | 3.00 | 0.2 | -- |
| Sean Newcomb | 0-0 | 6.00 | 1.33 | 3.0 | 3 |
0-0
W-L
0-0
0.00 Ldr
ERA
6.00
3.00
WHIP
Ldr 1.33
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 3.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
51%
WHITE SOX
49%
▲ Edge: +1.90% (CLE)
GUARDIANS
49%
Book Odds: +105
WHITE SOX
56%
Book Odds: -127
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.0
56%
Under 8.0
44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CLE -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
CLE By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CLE By 3-4 runs
17.5%
CHW By 1-2 runs
15.0%
CHW By 3-4 runs
9.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
5
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 3.20
Chicago
3.5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Cleveland
3
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 3.20
Chicago
6
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Guardians
Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim
White Sox
Loss
77% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Guardians (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
A
Sim
White Sox (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.5
C
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 7, 2026
CLE @ CHW
9 - 3
Oct 5, 2026
CHW @ CLE
4 - 3
Oct 3, 2026
CHW @ CLE
3 - 0
Sep 16, 2026
CHW @ CLE
3 - 6
Sep 15, 2026
CHW @ CLE
6 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Chicago
CHW
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.19
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.324
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.415
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.412
.696
OPS
▲
.826
162
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+99.4% more
Cleveland: 162.0
vs
Chicago: 1.0
Errors (L5)
+8.0% more
Cleveland: 0.7
vs
Chicago: 0.6
Runs per Game (Season)
+43.2% more
Chicago: 6.0
vs
Cleveland: 4.2
Strikeouts (L5)
+24.5% more
Chicago: 10.1
vs
Cleveland: 8.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
5.0
9
CHW Score
3.5
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.6 / 6.2
6.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.0
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
10.1 / 8.1
19.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
11.6 / 11.4
9.0 / 17.0
Walks
3.5 / 3.8
3.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -101 / -120
→
+105 / -127
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
88-79-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
CLE
CHW
CLE
ML
49%
81-86
54%
87-74
56%
94-73
49%
80-82
ATS
59%
99-68
58%
93-68
56%
93-74
59%
95-67
TTL
58%
96-69-2
55%
88-71-2
51%
84-81-2
43%
69-90-2
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