CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
84-78 | Road
4
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
85-77 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Anthony Kay
#18 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Gavin Williams
#32 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Kay | 1-0 | 0.00 | 1.50 | 2.0 | -- |
| Gavin Williams | 0-0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -- | -- |
1-0
W-L
0-0
0.00
ERA
0.00
1.50
WHIP
Ldr 0.00
2.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
45%
GUARDIANS
55%
▲ Edge: +1.90% (CHW)
WHITE SOX
43%
Book Odds: +131
GUARDIANS
61%
Book Odds: -158
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.9 (Over)
Over 6.5
70%
Under 6.5
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CLE -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
CHW By 1-2 runs
13.6%
CHW By 3-4 runs
7.8%
CLE By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CLE By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
3.2
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 2.50
Cleveland
5.2
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 2.50
Cleveland
4
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Guardians
Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
White Sox
Win
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Guardians (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
White Sox (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o6.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.4
A
Sim
o6.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 7, 2026
CLE @ CHW
9 - 3
Oct 5, 2026
CHW @ CLE
4 - 3
Oct 3, 2026
CHW @ CLE
3 - 0
Sep 16, 2026
CHW @ CLE
3 - 6
Sep 15, 2026
CHW @ CLE
6 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHW
vs
Cleveland
CLE
1
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.324
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.415
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.412
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.826
▲
OPS
.696
1
Home Runs
▲
162
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+16100.0% more
Cleveland: 162.0
vs
Chicago: 1.0
Walks (L5)
+28.1% more
Cleveland: 4.2
vs
Chicago: 3.3
Errors (L5)
+11.0% more
Cleveland: 0.5
vs
Chicago: 0.4
Runs per Game (Season)
+30.2% more
Chicago: 6.0
vs
Cleveland: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHW Score
3.2
4
CLE Score
5.2
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.4
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.3 / 8.4
4.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 1.4
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.6 / 8.6
9.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
14.1 / 13.8
6.0 / 7.0
Walks
4.2 / 3.3
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +136 / -164
→
+131 / -158
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5
→
6.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW
Advantage
88-79-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
CLE
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW
Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8%
Total +/-: +0.9
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
CHW
CLE
CHW
ML
54%
87-74
49%
81-86
49%
80-82
56%
94-73
ATS
58%
93-68
59%
99-68
59%
95-67
56%
93-74
TTL
55%
88-71-2
58%
96-69-2
43%
69-90-2
51%
84-81-2
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