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NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

93-68  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 6:30 PM ET
Tropicana Field
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

98-64  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Gerrit Cole
STARTING PITCHER

Gerrit Cole

#45 | Starting Pitcher
@
Drew Rasmussen
STARTING PITCHER

Drew Rasmussen

#57 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Gerrit Cole 0-0 0.00 0.00 -- --
Drew Rasmussen 0-0 0.00 0.00 -- --
0-0 W-L 0-0
0.00 ERA 0.00
0.00 WHIP 0.00
-- IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
51%
📊
RAYS
49%
▲ Edge: +5.70% (NYY)
YANKEES 46% Book Odds: +119
RAYS 59% Book Odds: -143
Book Implied: 45.70% / 58.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 (Over)
Over 7.0 70%
Under 7.0 30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (New York)
YankeesNYY (+1.5) 0 RaysTB (-1.5)
New York Yankees (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Yankees Cover

69.1%

Rays Cover

30.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYY -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)

NYY By 1-2 runs

19.6%

NYY By 3-4 runs

18.4%

TB By 1-2 runs

13.6%

TB By 3-4 runs

7.8%

AI Model Projected Score
5.5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 2.80
3.5
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
3
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 2.80
4
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Yankees Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Rays Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Yankees (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Sim Yankees (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o7.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim o7.0 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 7, 2026 TB @ NYY 4 - 3
Oct 5, 2026 NYY @ TB 2 - 5
Oct 3, 2026 NYY @ TB 0 - 1
Sep 24, 2026 TB @ NYY 4 - 6
Sep 23, 2026 TB @ NYY 2 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYY
vs
Tampa Bay TB
1
Games Played
▲ 162
9.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.54
.375 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.258
.447 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.326
.594 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
1.041 ▲
OPS
.728
2
Home Runs
▲ 169
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +49.6% more
New York: 9.0 vs Tampa Bay: 4.5
OPS (Season) +31.3%
New York: 1.0% vs Tampa Bay: 72.8%
Walks (L5) +21.6% more
New York: 3.3 vs Tampa Bay: 2.6
Slugging Pct (Season) +19.2%
New York: 59.4% vs Tampa Bay: 40.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYY Score 5.5 0
TB Score 3.5 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.3 / 7.6 5.0 / 1.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 1.4 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.0 / 5.7 5.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 15.6 / 12.8 10.0 / 2.0
Walks 2.6 / 3.3 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +118 / -130 → +119 / -143 ↑
54%TICKETS46%
64%MONEY36%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
43%TICKETS57%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7 → 7
88%TICKETS12%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
NYY
TB
NYY
ML
58% 95-68
47% 76-85
58% 95-68
52% 85-77
ATS
60% 97-66
59% 95-66
55% 90-73
53% 86-76
TTL
47% 73-81-9
53% 81-73-7
51% 78-75-10
53% 82-72-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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