Home / MLB Projections MLB / White Sox @ Guardians CHW @ CLE

CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

84-78  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 1:00 PM ET
Progressive Field
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

85-77  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Hagen Smith
STARTING PITCHER

Hagen Smith

#32 | SP
@
Parker Messick
STARTING PITCHER

Parker Messick

#77 | SP
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Hagen Smith 0-0 0.00 0.67 3.0 1
Parker Messick 0-0 0.00 0.00 -- --
0-0 W-L 0-0
0.00 ERA 0.00
0.67 WHIP Ldr 0.00
3.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) --
1 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
45%
📊
GUARDIANS
55%
▲ Edge: +0.80% (CHW)
WHITE SOX 45% Book Odds: +124
GUARDIANS 60% Book Odds: -149
Book Implied: 44.60% / 59.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 (Over)
Over 6.5 70%
Under 6.5 30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
CHICAGO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
White SoxCHW (+1.5) 0 GuardiansCLE (-1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

White Sox Cover

64.6%

Guardians Cover

35.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHW +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHW)

CHW By 1-2 runs

15.0%

CHW By 3-4 runs

9.2%

CLE By 1-2 runs

19.7%

CLE By 3-4 runs

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 2.50
5
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
2
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 2.50
5
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Guardians Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim Guardians Loss
77% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI White Sox (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.5
D
Sim Guardians (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.5
A
Sim o6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 7, 2026 CLE @ CHW 9 - 3
Oct 5, 2026 CHW @ CLE 4 - 3
Oct 3, 2026 CHW @ CLE 3 - 0
Sep 16, 2026 CHW @ CLE 3 - 6
Sep 15, 2026 CHW @ CLE 6 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHW
vs
Cleveland CLE
1
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.324 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.415 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.412 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.826 ▲
OPS
.696
1
Home Runs
▲ 162
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +16100.0% more
Cleveland: 162.0 vs Chicago: 1.0
Home Runs (L5) +38.6% more
Cleveland: 2.3 vs Chicago: 1.7
Walks (L5) +30.4% more
Cleveland: 3.9 vs Chicago: 3.0
Total Bases (L5) +18.1% more
Cleveland: 18.6 vs Chicago: 15.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHW Score 3.5 3
CLE Score 5.0 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.5 / 9.6 3.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 2.3 / 1.7 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 5.5 / 7.9 12.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 18.6 / 15.7 5.0 / 10.0
Walks 3.9 / 3.0 5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +136 / -151 → +124 / -149
35%TICKETS65%
63%MONEY37%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
40%TICKETS60%
31%MONEY69%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7 → 6.5 ↓
90%TICKETS10%
90%MONEY10%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW Advantage
88-79-0 (52.7%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
CLE
86-79-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8% Total +/-: +0.9
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
CHW
CLE
CHW
ML
54% 87-74
49% 81-86
49% 80-82
56% 94-73
ATS
58% 93-68
59% 99-68
59% 95-67
56% 93-74
TTL
55% 88-71-2
58% 96-69-2
43% 69-90-2
51% 84-81-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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