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MINNESOTA

WILDMIN

2-1-1  |  Road

2
FINAL
Thu, Oct 8 • 7:00 PM ET
Benchmark International Arena
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

LIGHTNINGTB

3-1-0  |  Home

3
Goaltending
Jesper Wallstedt
GOALTENDER

Jesper Wallstedt

#30 | Goaltender
@
Dennis Hildeby
GOALTENDER

Dennis Hildeby

#35 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Jesper Wallstedt None-None 3.05 0.914 --
Dennis Hildeby None-None 2.01 0.944 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
3.05 GAA Ldr 2.01
0.914 Save % Ldr 0.944
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
WILD
32%
📊
LIGHTNING
68%
▲ Edge: +9.40% (TB)
WILD 44% Book Odds: +128
LIGHTNING 59% Book Odds: -141
Book Implied: 43.90% / 58.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
6.0
Over / Under Line
Over 6.0 50%
Under 6.0 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Tampa Bay)
WildMIN (+1.5) 0 LightningTB (-1.5)
Tampa Bay Lightning (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wild Cover

21.2%

Lightning Cover

78.8%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TB -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

MIN By 1 goal

8.6%

MIN By 2-3 goals

5.5%

TB By 1 goal

18.9%

TB By 2-3 goals

34.9%

AI Model Projected Score
2.2
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 2.20
3.8
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 3.80
Simulated Score
2
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 2.20
3
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 3.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Lightning Win
68% Win Prob
B
Sim Lightning Win
69% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lightning (-1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.6
D
Sim Wild (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 8, 2026 MIN @ TB 2 - 3
Mar 24, 2026 MIN @ TB 3 - 6
Mar 3, 2026 TB @ MIN 1 - 5
Nov 1, 2024 TB @ MIN 3 - 5
Oct 24, 2024 MIN @ TB 4 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5) +15.4% more
Tampa Bay: 15.0 vs Minnesota: 13.0
Takeaways (L5) +13.1% more
Tampa Bay: 4.3 vs Minnesota: 3.8
Shots on Goal (L5) +11.7% more
Tampa Bay: 29.8 vs Minnesota: 26.7
Power Play % (L5) +34.3%
Minnesota: 34.3% vs Tampa Bay: 0.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 2.2 2
TB Score 3.8 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 15.0 / 13.0 14.0 / 20.0
Faceoff % 46.4 / 47.4 43.1 / 56.9
Hits 25.3 / 24.1 12.0 / 24.0
Power Play % 0.0 / 34.3 33.3 / 50.0
Shots on Goal 29.8 / 26.7 35.0 / 36.0
Takeaways 4.3 / 3.8 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +124 / -148 → +128 / -141 ↓
28%TICKETS72%
33%MONEY67%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
71%TICKETS29%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: 5.5 → 6 ↑
89%TICKETS11%
91%MONEY9%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
MIN
TB
MIN
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
ATS
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
TTL
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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