DALLAS
STARSDAL
2-2-0 | Road
4
BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
2-2-0 | Home
0
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Jake Oettinger
#29 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
#1 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger | None-None | 0.00 | 1.000 | 1 |
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | None-None | 4.01 | 0.778 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
0.00 Ldr
GAA
4.01
1.000 Ldr
Save %
0.778
1 Ldr
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
STARS
69%
SABRES
31%
▲ Edge: +14.50% (DAL)
STARS
55%
Book Odds: -122
SABRES
50%
Book Odds: +102
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 6.5
50%
Under 6.5
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
DALLAS
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Dallas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around DAL -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)
DAL By 1 goal
18.9%
DAL By 2-3 goals
34.9%
BUF By 1 goal
8.6%
BUF By 2-3 goals
5.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Dallas
3.8
DALLAS
Book Implied: 4
Buffalo
2.2
BUFFALO
Book Implied: 2.50
Simulated Score
Dallas
2
DALLAS
Book Implied: 4
Buffalo
3
BUFFALO
Book Implied: 2.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Stars
Win
69% Win Prob
A
Sim
Sabres
Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Stars (-1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.6
D
Sim
Sabres (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 8, 2026
DAL @ BUF
4 - 0
Apr 15, 2026
DAL @ BUF
4 - 3
Dec 31, 2025
BUF @ DAL
4 - 1
Dec 31, 2024
BUF @ DAL
2 - 4
Oct 22, 2024
DAL @ BUF
2 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+31.9% more
Dallas: 15.7
vs
Buffalo: 10.7
Faceoff % (L5)
+6.8%
Dallas: 56.8%
vs
Buffalo: 50.0%
Takeaways (L5)
+19.4% more
Buffalo: 3.1
vs
Dallas: 2.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAL Score
3.8
4
BUF Score
2.2
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
10.7 / 15.7
8.0 / 17.0
Faceoff %
50.0 / 56.8
37.7 / 62.3
Hits
20.2 / 21.3
23.0 / 22.0
Power Play %
0.0 / 0.0
0.0 / 50.0
Shots on Goal
27.1 / 26.5
26.0 / 18.0
Takeaways
3.1 / 2.6
3.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -105 / -115
→
-122 / +102
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
↓
Total (O/U)
Open: 5.5
→
6.5
↑
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
DAL
BUF
DAL
ML
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
25%
1-3
ATS
50%
2-2
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
25%
1-3
TTL
50%
2-2
100%
4-0
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
Contextual Game News
Islanders Defy Doubters with Four Stars on ESPN Top 100 List
Sharks Stunned: Celebrini Sidelined by Lower-Body Injury Moments…
Sharks' Celebrini Sidelined with Lower-Body Injury in Loss to St…
Maple Leafs' Accountability Moment: Hiller Benches Nylander, Ech…
Jiri Kulich's Emotional Game-Winner Lifts Sabres Over Blackhawks…