PHILADELPHIA
FLYERSPHI
0-3-2 | Road
1
OTTAWA
SENATORSOTT
3-1-0 | Home
2
AI Model Win Probability
FLYERS
45%
SENATORS
55%
▲ Edge: +5.90% (PHI)
FLYERS
39%
Book Odds: +156
SENATORS
64%
Book Odds: -174
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
5.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 5.5
74%
Under 5.5
26%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around PHI +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
PHI By 1 goal
9.8%
PHI By 2-3 goals
6.6%
OTT By 1 goal
19.4%
OTT By 2-3 goals
33.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
2.8
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 2
Ottawa
4.2
OTTAWA
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
4
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 2
Ottawa
3
OTTAWA
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Senators
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Flyers
70% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Flyers (+1.5)
Proj Goals: +1.4
D
Sim
Flyers (+1.5)
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o5.5
Proj Total: 7.0
A
Sim
o5.5
Proj Total: 7.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 8, 2026
PHI @ OTT
1 - 2
Feb 5, 2026
OTT @ PHI
2 - 1
Nov 8, 2025
OTT @ PHI
3 - 2
Oct 23, 2025
PHI @ OTT
1 - 2
Apr 13, 2025
PHI @ OTT
3 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+36.6% more
Ottawa: 27.3
vs
Philadelphia: 20.0
Hits (L5)
+9.0% more
Ottawa: 34.2
vs
Philadelphia: 31.4
Power Play % (L5)
+3.0%
Ottawa: 3.0%
vs
Philadelphia: 0.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
2.8
1
OTT Score
4.2
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
16.7 / 16.3
20.0 / 11.0
Faceoff %
54.1 / 55.1
52.8 / 47.2
Hits
34.2 / 31.4
23.0 / 22.0
Power Play %
0.0 / 0.0
20.0 / 25.0
Shots on Goal
27.3 / 20.0
26.0 / 29.0
Takeaways
3.6 / 3.8
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -108 / +105
→
+156 / -174
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 5.5
→
5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OTT
PHI
OTT
PHI
ML
0%
0-3
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
ATS
0%
0-3
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
TTL
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
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