Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Real Madrid vs Villarreal Real Madrid vs Villarreal

REAL MADRIDREAL MADRID

5-0-2  |  Home

1
FINAL
Sat, Oct 10 • 3:00 PM ET
Santiago Bernabéu

VILLARREALVILLARREAL

2-2-3  |  Away

0
AI Model Win Probability
REAL MADRID
18%
DRAW
21%
VILLARREAL
61%
▲ Edge: +37% (Villarreal)
74% Book Odds: -280
DRAW --
13% Book Odds: +650
Book Implied: 73.70% / % / 13.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
3.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 3.5 37%
Under 3.5 63%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
VILLARREAL
Book Goal Line
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 goals (Villarreal)
Real MadridReal Madrid (-1.5) 0 VillarrealVillarreal (+1.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

46.3% / 53.7%

Shots (On Goal)

11(4) / 15(4)

Corners

9 / 3

Cards (Y/R)

5/1 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

25.2%

Cover

74.8%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Villarreal -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Villarreal)

Real Madrid By 1 goal

11.1%

Real Madrid By 2+ goals

4.8%

Villarreal By 1 goal

26.1%

Villarreal By 2+ goals

36.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
REAL MADRID
Book Implied: 2.50
2
VILLARREAL
Book Implied: 1
Simulated Score
3
REAL MADRID
Book Implied: 2.50
1
VILLARREAL
Book Implied: 1
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Villarreal Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Real Madrid Win
83% Win Prob
A
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Villarreal (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Sim Real Madrid (-1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u3.5 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim o3.5 Loss
Proj Total: 4.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2026 Real Madrid vs Villarreal 1 - 0
Jan 24, 2026 Villarreal vs Real Madrid 0 - 2
Oct 4, 2025 Real Madrid vs Villarreal 3 - 1
Mar 15, 2025 Villarreal vs Real Madrid 1 - 2
Oct 5, 2024 Real Madrid vs Villarreal 2 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +10.0% more
Villarreal: 11.0 vs Real Madrid: 10.0
Wins (L5) +50.0% more
Real Madrid: 3.0 vs Villarreal: 2.0
Losses (L5) +50.0% more
Real Madrid: 2.0 vs Villarreal: 3.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +42.9% more
Real Madrid: 7.0 vs Villarreal: 10.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Villarreal Score 2.0 0
Real Madrid Score 1.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 18.3% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 60.6%
Real Madrid (Home) vs Villarreal (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Real Madrid Share: 33.3% Villarreal Share: 66.7%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Real Madrid
Villarreal
Real Madrid
Villarreal
ML
62% 5-3
38% 3-5
75% 6-2
38% 3-5
ATS
38% 3-5
75% 6-2
38% 3-5
25% 2-6
TTL
71% 5-2-1
62% 5-3
57% 4-3-1
38% 3-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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