Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Alavés vs Atlético Alavés vs Atlético

ALAVÉSALAVÉS

3-2-3  |  Home

1
FINAL
Sat, Oct 10 • 10:15 AM ET
Mendizorrotza

ATLÉTICOATLÉTICO

5-1-1  |  Away

2
AI Model Win Probability
ALAVÉS
18%
DRAW
21%
ATLÉTICO
61%
▲ Edge: +29.80% (Alavés)
22% Book Odds: +364
DRAW 27% Book Odds: +271
55% Book Odds: -120
Book Implied: 21.60% / 27% / 54.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 2.5 51%
Under 2.5 49%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
+1.0
ALAVÉS
Book Goal Line
+0.75
Book Line
AlavésAlavés (+0.8) 0 AtléticoAtlético (-0.8)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

32.3% / 67.7%

Shots (On Goal)

8(3) / 22(7)

Corners

0 / 10

Cards (Y/R)

0/1 - 3/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

25.2%

Cover

74.8%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Alavés +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Alavés)

Alavés By 1 goal

11.1%

Alavés By 2+ goals

4.8%

Atlético Madrid By 1 goal

26.1%

Atlético Madrid By 2+ goals

36.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
ALAVÉS
Book Implied: 0.90
2
ATLÉTICO
Book Implied: 1.60
Simulated Score
0
ALAVÉS
Book Implied: 0.90
1
ATLÉTICO
Book Implied: 1.60
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Atlético Madrid Win
49% Win Prob
D
Sim Atlético Madrid Win
54% Win Prob
D
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Alavés (+0.75) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim Atlético Madrid (-0.75)
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o2.5 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim u2.5 Loss
Proj Total: 1.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2026 Alavés vs Atlético 1 - 2
Jan 18, 2026 Atlético vs Alavés 1 - 0
Aug 30, 2025 Alavés vs Atlético 1 - 1
May 3, 2025 Alavés vs Atlético 0 - 0
Nov 23, 2024 Atlético vs Alavés 2 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Wins (L5) +50.0% more
Atlético: 3.0 vs Alavés: 2.0
Goals Scored (L5) +42.9% more
Atlético: 10.0 vs Alavés: 7.0
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Alavés: 1.0 vs Atlético: 0.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +20.0% more
Alavés: 5.0 vs Atlético: 6.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Atlético Madrid Score 2.0 2
Alavés Score 1.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 18.3% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 60.6%
Alavés (Home) vs Atlético Madrid (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Alavés Share: 33.3% Atlético Madrid Share: 66.7%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Alavés
Atlético Madrid
Alavés
Atlético Madrid
ML
38% 3-5
62% 5-3
50% 4-4
38% 3-5
ATS
75% 6-2
50% 4-4
60% 4-3
47% 3-4
TTL
57% 4-3-1
50% 4-4
23% 1-5-1
38% 3-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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