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MAN UNITEDMAN UNITED

1-2-2  |  Home

1
FINAL
Sat, Oct 10 • 12:30 PM ET
Old Trafford

SPURSSPURS

0-2-3  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
MAN UNITED
61%
DRAW
21%
SPURS
18%
▲ Edge: +28.60% (Tottenham Hotspur)
58% Book Odds: -139
DRAW 23% Book Odds: +339
22% Book Odds: +347
Book Implied: 58.20% / 22.80% / 22.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
3.25
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.3 (Under)
Over 3.25 35%
Under 3.25 65%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
MAN UNITED
Book Goal Line
-0.75
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 goals (Man United)
Man UnitedMan United (-0.8) 0 SpursSpurs (+0.8)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

49.6% / 50.4%

Shots (On Goal)

12(4) / 12(3)

Corners

4 / 4

Cards (Y/R)

4/0 - 3/1

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Manchester United -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Manchester United)

Manchester United By 1 goal

26.1%

Manchester United By 2+ goals

36.9%

Tottenham Hotspur By 1 goal

11.1%

Tottenham Hotspur By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
MAN UNITED
Book Implied: 2
1
SPURS
Book Implied: 1.20
Simulated Score
2
MAN UNITED
Book Implied: 2
1
SPURS
Book Implied: 1.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Manchester United
49% Win Prob
D
Sim Manchester United
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Manchester United (-0.75)
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Manchester United (-0.75)
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u3.25
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim u3.3
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2026 Man United vs Spurs 1 - 1
Feb 7, 2026 Man United vs Spurs 2 - 0
Nov 8, 2025 Spurs vs Man United 2 - 2
Feb 16, 2025 Spurs vs Man United 1 - 0
Sep 29, 2024 Man United vs Spurs 0 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +200.0% more
Man United: 9.0 vs Spurs: 3.0
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Man United: 1.0 vs Spurs: 0.0
Losses (L5) +50.0% more
Man United: 2.0 vs Spurs: 3.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +14.3% more
Man United: 7.0 vs Spurs: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Tottenham Hotspur Score 1.0 1
Manchester United Score 2.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Manchester United (Home) vs Tottenham Hotspur (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Manchester United Share: 66.7% Tottenham Hotspur Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Manchester United
Tottenham Hotspur
Manchester United
Tottenham Hotspur
ML
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
ATS
80% 4-1
75% 3-1-1
20% 1-4
25% 1-3-1
TTL
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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