Home / Premier League Projections Premier League / Sunderland vs Brighton Sunderland vs Brighton

SUNDERLANDSUNDERLAND

1-1-3  |  Home

0
FINAL
Sat, Oct 10 • 10:00 AM ET
Stadium of Light

BRIGHTONBRIGHTON

3-1-1  |  Away

2
AI Model Win Probability
SUNDERLAND
18%
DRAW
21%
BRIGHTON
61%
▲ Edge: +28.30% (Sunderland)
33% Book Odds: +208
DRAW 29% Book Odds: +240
41% Book Odds: +143
Book Implied: 32.50% / 29.40% / 41.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 2.5 57%
Under 2.5 43%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
BRIGHTON
Book Goal Line
-0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 goals (Brighton)
SunderlandSunderland (+0.2) 0 BrightonBrighton (-0.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

62.3% / 37.7%

Shots (On Goal)

12(3) / 13(4)

Corners

7 / 5

Cards (Y/R)

0/0 - 1/1

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

25.2%

Cover

74.8%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Brighton & Hove Albion -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Brighton & Hove Albion)

Sunderland By 1 goal

11.1%

Sunderland By 2+ goals

4.8%

Brighton & Hove Albion By 1 goal

26.1%

Brighton & Hove Albion By 2+ goals

36.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
SUNDERLAND
Book Implied: 1.10
2
BRIGHTON
Book Implied: 1.40
Simulated Score
1
SUNDERLAND
Book Implied: 1.10
2
BRIGHTON
Book Implied: 1.40
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Brighton & Hove Albion Win
39% Win Prob
D
Sim Brighton & Hove Albion Win
62% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Brighton & Hove Albion (-0.25) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Brighton & Hove Albion (-0.25) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.5 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim o2.5 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2026 Sunderland vs Brighton 0 - 2
Mar 14, 2026 Sunderland vs Brighton 0 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +150.0% more
Brighton: 15.0 vs Sunderland: 6.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Brighton: 1.0 vs Sunderland: 2.0
Wins (L5) +50.0% more
Brighton: 3.0 vs Sunderland: 2.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +14.3% more
Brighton: 7.0 vs Sunderland: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Brighton & Hove Albion Score 2.0 2
Sunderland Score 1.0 0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 18.3% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 60.6%
Sunderland (Home) vs Brighton & Hove Albion (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Sunderland Share: 33.3% Brighton & Hove Albion Share: 66.7%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Sunderland
Brighton & Hove Albion
Sunderland
Brighton & Hove Albion
ML
50% 3-3
50% 3-3
67% 4-2
50% 3-3
ATS
67% 4-2
50% 3-3
67% 4-2
67% 4-2
TTL
18% 1-4
45% 2-3
64% 3-2
45% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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