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CHELSEACHELSEA

3-1-2  |  Home

5
FINAL
Sat, Oct 10 • 10:00 AM ET
Stamford Bridge

BOURNEMOUTHBOURNEMOUTH

0-3-2  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
CHELSEA
61%
DRAW
21%
BOURNEMOUTH
18%
▲ Edge: +31.40% (AFC Bournemouth)
54% Book Odds: -119
DRAW 25% Book Odds: +304
24% Book Odds: +313
Book Implied: 54.30% / 24.80% / 24.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
3.0
Over / Under Line
Over 3.0 60%
Under 3.0 40%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
CHELSEA
Book Goal Line
-0.75
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 goals (Chelsea)
ChelseaChelsea (-0.8) 0 BournemouthBournemouth (+0.8)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

49.9% / 50.1%

Shots (On Goal)

10(6) / 9(4)

Corners

1 / 7

Cards (Y/R)

0/0 - 4/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Chelsea -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Chelsea)

Chelsea By 1 goal

26.1%

Chelsea By 2+ goals

36.9%

AFC Bournemouth By 1 goal

11.1%

AFC Bournemouth By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
CHELSEA
Book Implied: 1.90
1
BOURNEMOUTH
Book Implied: 1.10
Simulated Score
3
CHELSEA
Book Implied: 1.90
1
BOURNEMOUTH
Book Implied: 1.10
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Chelsea Win
44% Win Prob
D
Sim Chelsea Win
83% Win Prob
A
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Chelsea (-0.75) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Sim Chelsea (-0.75) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u3.0 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim o3.0 Win
Proj Total: 4.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2026 Chelsea vs Bournemouth 5 - 1
Dec 30, 2025 Chelsea vs Bournemouth 2 - 2
Dec 6, 2025 Bournemouth vs Chelsea 0 - 0
Jan 14, 2025 Chelsea vs Bournemouth 2 - 2
Sep 14, 2024 Bournemouth vs Chelsea 0 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +30.0% more
Chelsea: 13.0 vs Bournemouth: 10.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +116.7% more
Bournemouth: 6.0 vs Chelsea: 13.0
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Bournemouth: 2.0 vs Chelsea: 1.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Bournemouth: 1.0 vs Chelsea: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
AFC Bournemouth Score 1.0 1
Chelsea Score 2.0 5
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Chelsea (Home) vs AFC Bournemouth (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Chelsea Share: 66.7% AFC Bournemouth Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Chelsea
AFC Bournemouth
Chelsea
AFC Bournemouth
ML
67% 4-2
83% 5-1
67% 4-2
33% 2-4
ATS
17% 1-5
70% 3-1-1
82% 4-1
50% 2-2-1
TTL
40% 2-3-1
60% 3-2-1
80% 4-1-1
60% 3-2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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