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ASTON VILLAASTON VILLA

1-2-3  |  Home

2
FINAL
Sat, Oct 10 • 10:00 AM ET
Villa Park

BRENTFORDBRENTFORD

2-3-0  |  Away

2
AI Model Win Probability
ASTON VILLA
61%
DRAW
21%
BRENTFORD
18%
▲ Edge: +18.80% (Brentford)
39% Book Odds: +158
DRAW 27% Book Odds: +268
37% Book Odds: +170
Book Implied: 38.80% / 27.20% / 37%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 2.75 57%
Under 2.75 43%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
ASTON VILLA
Book Goal Line
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 goals (Aston Villa)
Aston VillaAston Villa (0) 0 BrentfordBrentford (0)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

52.1% / 47.9%

Shots (On Goal)

20(7) / 14(4)

Corners

2 / 2

Cards (Y/R)

2/0 - 5/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Aston Villa -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Aston Villa)

Aston Villa By 1 goal

26.1%

Aston Villa By 2+ goals

36.9%

Brentford By 1 goal

11.1%

Brentford By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
ASTON VILLA
Book Implied: 1.40
1
BRENTFORD
Book Implied: 1.40
Simulated Score
1
ASTON VILLA
Book Implied: 1.40
2
BRENTFORD
Book Implied: 1.40
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Aston Villa Loss
44% Win Prob
D
Sim Brentford Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Aston Villa (+0) Push
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Brentford (-0) Push
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.75 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim o2.8 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2026 Aston Villa vs Brentford 2 - 2
Feb 1, 2026 Aston Villa vs Brentford 0 - 1
Aug 23, 2025 Brentford vs Aston Villa 1 - 0
Mar 8, 2025 Brentford vs Aston Villa 0 - 1
Dec 4, 2024 Aston Villa vs Brentford 3 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Aston Villa: 4.0 vs Brentford: 2.0
Goals Scored (L5) +44.4% more
Aston Villa: 13.0 vs Brentford: 9.0
Draws (L5) +300.0% more
Brentford: 3.0 vs Aston Villa: 0.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Brentford: 0.0 vs Aston Villa: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Brentford Score 1.0 2
Aston Villa Score 2.0 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Aston Villa (Home) vs Brentford (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Aston Villa Share: 66.7% Brentford Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Aston Villa
Brentford
Aston Villa
Brentford
ML
50% 3-3
67% 4-2
33% 2-4
0% 0-6
ATS
100% 4-0-2
71% 2-1-2
50% 2-2-2
14% 0-3-2
TTL
67% 4-2
64% 3-2
33% 2-4
82% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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