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ARSENALARSENAL

4-0-1  |  Home

2
FINAL
Sat, Oct 10 • 7:30 AM ET
Emirates Stadium

LEEDSLEEDS

2-3-0  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
ARSENAL
61%
DRAW
21%
LEEDS
18%
▲ Edge: +33% (Leeds United)
68% Book Odds: -213
DRAW 22% Book Odds: +360
13% Book Odds: +670
Book Implied: 68.10% / 21.70% / 13%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 2.5 57%
Under 2.5 43%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
+1.0
LEEDS
Book Goal Line
+1.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 goals (Leeds)
ArsenalArsenal (-1.2) 0 LeedsLeeds (+1.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

58.2% / 41.8%

Shots (On Goal)

13(6) / 11(5)

Corners

3 / 4

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 4/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Leeds United +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Leeds United)

Arsenal By 1 goal

26.1%

Arsenal By 2+ goals

36.9%

Leeds United By 1 goal

11.1%

Leeds United By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
ARSENAL
Book Implied: 1.90
1
LEEDS
Book Implied: 0.60
Simulated Score
2
ARSENAL
Book Implied: 1.90
0
LEEDS
Book Implied: 0.60
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Arsenal Win
54% Win Prob
D
Sim Arsenal Win
80% Win Prob
A
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Leeds United (+1.25)
Proj Goals: +1.0
C
Sim Arsenal (-1.25)
Proj Goals: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o2.5 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim u2.5 Loss
Proj Total: 2.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2026 Arsenal vs Leeds 2 - 1
Jan 31, 2026 Leeds vs Arsenal 0 - 4
Aug 23, 2025 Arsenal vs Leeds 5 - 0
Apr 1, 2023 Arsenal vs Leeds 4 - 1
Oct 16, 2022 Leeds vs Arsenal 0 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Wins (L5) +300.0% more
Arsenal: 4.0 vs Leeds: 1.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +50.0% more
Arsenal: 6.0 vs Leeds: 9.0
Draws (L5) +300.0% more
Leeds: 3.0 vs Arsenal: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Leeds United Score 1.0 1
Arsenal Score 2.0 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Arsenal (Home) vs Leeds United (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Arsenal Share: 66.7% Leeds United Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Arsenal
Leeds United
Arsenal
Leeds United
ML
67% 4-2
50% 3-3
83% 5-1
33% 2-4
ATS
22% 1-3-1
0% 0-4-1
62% 2-1-2
22% 1-3-1
TTL
57% 2-1-2
33% 2-4
43% 1-2-2
50% 3-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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