AMÉRICAAMÉRICA
6-2-1 | Home
1
MONTERREYMONTERREY
4-1-4 | Away
1
AI Model Win Probability
AMÉRICA
61%
DRAW
21%
MONTERREY
18%
▲ Edge: +16.50% (Monterrey)
54%
Book Odds: -118
DRAW
27%
Book Odds: +277
23%
Book Odds: +337
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
3.0
Over / Under Line
Over 3.0
49%
Under 3.0
51%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
AMÉRICA
Book Goal Line
-0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (América)
Soccer Match Statistics
Possession
58.8% / 41.2%
Shots (On Goal)
14(8) / 7(2)
Corners
6 / 5
Cards (Y/R)
1/1 - 1/0
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around América -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (América)
América By 1 goal
26.1%
América By 2+ goals
36.9%
Monterrey By 1 goal
11.1%
Monterrey By 2+ goals
4.8%
AI Model Projected Score
América
2
AMÉRICA
Book Implied: 1.80
Monterrey
1
MONTERREY
Book Implied: 1.20
Simulated Score
América
2
AMÉRICA
Book Implied: 1.80
Monterrey
1
MONTERREY
Book Implied: 1.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
América
61% Win Prob
C
Sim
América
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
América (-0.5)
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Sim
América (-0.5)
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u3.0
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim
u3.0
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 10, 2026
América vs Monterrey
1 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5)
+200.0% more
América: 9.0
vs
Monterrey: 3.0
Goals Conceded (L5)
+66.7% more
Monterrey: 6.0
vs
América: 10.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
Monterrey Score
1.0
1
América Score
2.0
1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
América (Home)
vs
Monterrey (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Book Line: 2.5 Goals
AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
AI Projected Score
2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
América
Monterrey
América
Monterrey
ML
67%
6-3
44%
4-5
78%
7-2
44%
4-5
ATS
50%
4-4-1
50%
4-4
100%
7-0-2
44%
4-5
TTL
56%
5-4
44%
4-5
78%
7-2
44%
4-5