Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Atlas vs Guadalajara Atlas vs Guadalajara

ATLASATLAS

7-3-4  |  Home

1
FINAL
Sat, Oct 10 • 9:00 PM ET
Estadio Jalisco

GUADALAJARAGUADALAJARA

7-5-2  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
ATLAS
35%
DRAW
31%
GUADALAJARA
35%
▲ Edge: +1.20% (Guadalajara)
27% Book Odds: +273
DRAW 28% Book Odds: +261
49% Book Odds: +105
Book Implied: 26.80% / 27.70% / 48.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.8 (Under)
Over 2.75 46%
Under 2.75 54%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
ATLAS
Book Goal Line
+0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Atlas)
AtlasAtlas (+0.5) 0 GuadalajaraGuadalajara (-0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

43.6% / 56.4%

Shots (On Goal)

6(3) / 12(5)

Corners

7 / 7

Cards (Y/R)

2/0 - 3/1

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Atlas 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Atlas)

Atlas By 1 goal

21.1%

Atlas By 2+ goals

15.9%

Guadalajara By 1 goal

21.1%

Guadalajara By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
ATLAS
Book Implied: 1.10
1
GUADALAJARA
Book Implied: 1.60
Simulated Score
1
ATLAS
Book Implied: 1.10
2
GUADALAJARA
Book Implied: 1.60
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Draw Win
39% Win Prob
A
Sim Guadalajara Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Atlas (+0.5) Win
Proj Goals: 0.0
C
Sim Guadalajara (-0.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u2.75 Win
Proj Total: 2.0
D
Sim o2.8 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2026 Atlas vs Guadalajara 1 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Goals Conceded (L5) +125.0% more
Guadalajara: 4.0 vs Atlas: 9.0
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Guadalajara: 2.0 vs Atlas: 1.0
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Atlas: 2.0 vs Guadalajara: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Guadalajara Score 1.0 1
Atlas Score 1.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
Atlas (Home) vs Guadalajara (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Atlas Share: 50.0% Guadalajara Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Atlas
Guadalajara
Atlas
Guadalajara
ML
53% 8-7
50% 7-7
47% 7-8
50% 7-7
ATS
61% 8-5-1
82% 9-2-3
52% 7-6-1
45% 5-6-3
TTL
67% 10-5
81% 10-2-1
47% 7-8
46% 6-7-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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