Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Queretaro vs Atlante Queretaro vs Atlante

QUERETAROQUERETARO

5-2-2  |  Home

2
FINAL
Sat, Oct 10 • 7:00 PM ET
Estadio Corregidora

ATLANTEATLANTE

2-5-3  |  Away

0
AI Model Win Probability
QUERETARO
40%
DRAW
21%
ATLANTE
40%
▲ Edge: +22.40% (Atlante)
46% Book Odds: +118
DRAW 30% Book Odds: +235
28% Book Odds: +262
Book Implied: 45.90% / 29.90% / 27.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 (Over)
Over 2.75 60%
Under 2.75 40%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
ATLANTE
Book Goal Line
+0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 goals (Atlante)
QueretaroQueretaro (-0.2) 0 AtlanteAtlante (+0.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

44.9% / 55.1%

Shots (On Goal)

11(3) / 17(9)

Corners

6 / 8

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 3/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Atlante 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Atlante)

Querétaro By 1 goal

21.1%

Querétaro By 2+ goals

15.9%

Atlante By 1 goal

21.1%

Atlante By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
2
QUERETARO
Book Implied: 1.50
2
ATLANTE
Book Implied: 1.20
Simulated Score
2
QUERETARO
Book Implied: 1.50
2
ATLANTE
Book Implied: 1.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Draw
38% Win Prob
A
Sim Draw
25% Win Prob
D
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Atlante (+0.25)
Proj Goals: 0.0
D
Sim Atlante (+0.25)
Proj Goals: 0.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.75
Proj Total: 4.0
C
Sim o2.8
Proj Total: 4.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2026 Queretaro vs Atlante 2 - 0
Apr 17, 2026 Atlante vs Queretaro 1 - 1
Nov 2, 2025 Queretaro vs Atlante 1 - 0
Mar 14, 2025 Queretaro vs Atlante 1 - 0
Oct 4, 2024 Atlante vs Queretaro 2 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +200.0% more
Atlante: 3.0 vs Queretaro: 1.0
Wins (L5) +200.0% more
Queretaro: 3.0 vs Atlante: 1.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +100.0% more
Queretaro: 4.0 vs Atlante: 8.0
Goals Scored (L5) +14.3% more
Queretaro: 8.0 vs Atlante: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Atlante Score 2.0 0
Querétaro Score 2.0 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 39.6% Draw: 20.7% Away Win: 39.6%
Querétaro (Home) vs Atlante (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 76.2% Under 2.5: 23.8%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 4.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Querétaro Share: 50.0% Atlante Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Querétaro
Atlante
Querétaro
Atlante
ML
22% 2-7
60% 6-4
22% 2-7
10% 1-9
ATS
71% 5-2-2
62% 5-3-1
25% 2-6-1
29% 2-5-2
TTL
62% 5-3-1
20% 2-8
50% 4-4-1
70% 7-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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