Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Juárez vs Tijuana Juárez vs Tijuana

JUÁREZJUÁREZ

1-2-11  |  Home

1
FINAL
Sat, Oct 10 • 7:00 PM ET
Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez

TIJUANATIJUANA

5-6-3  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
JUÁREZ
61%
DRAW
21%
TIJUANA
18%
▲ Edge: +23.50% (Tijuana)
36% Book Odds: +180
DRAW 29% Book Odds: +245
39% Book Odds: +159
Book Implied: 35.70% / 29% / 38.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 2.5 59%
Under 2.5 41%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
JUÁREZ
Book Goal Line
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 goals (Juárez)
JuárezJuárez (0) 0 TijuanaTijuana (0)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

57.7% / 42.3%

Shots (On Goal)

9(6) / 13(4)

Corners

9 / 6

Cards (Y/R)

5/0 - 4/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around FC Juárez -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FC Juárez)

FC Juárez By 1 goal

26.1%

FC Juárez By 2+ goals

36.9%

Tijuana By 1 goal

11.1%

Tijuana By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
JUÁREZ
Book Implied: 1.20
1
TIJUANA
Book Implied: 1.20
Simulated Score
2
JUÁREZ
Book Implied: 1.20
2
TIJUANA
Book Implied: 1.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI FC Juárez Loss
38% Win Prob
D
Sim Draw Win
25% Win Prob
D
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI FC Juárez (+0) Push
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim FC Juárez (-0) Push
Proj Goals: 0.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.5 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim o2.5 Loss
Proj Total: 4.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2026 Juárez vs Tijuana 1 - 1
Apr 10, 2026 Juárez vs Tijuana 1 - 2
Jan 13, 2026 Juárez vs Tijuana 0 - 1
Nov 20, 2025 Tijuana vs Juárez 3 - 1
Aug 16, 2025 Tijuana vs Juárez 1 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Goals Conceded (L5) +10.0% more
Juárez: 10.0 vs Tijuana: 11.0
Goals Scored (L5) +100.0% more
Tijuana: 8.0 vs Juárez: 4.0
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Tijuana: 1.0 vs Juárez: 0.0
Losses (L5) +33.3% more
Tijuana: 3.0 vs Juárez: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Tijuana Score 1.0 1
FC Juárez Score 2.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
FC Juárez (Home) vs Tijuana (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
FC Juárez Share: 66.7% Tijuana Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FC Juárez
Tijuana
FC Juárez
Tijuana
ML
53% 8-7
14% 2-12
67% 10-5
43% 6-8
ATS
42% 5-7-3
67% 8-4-2
69% 9-4-2
50% 6-6-2
TTL
43% 6-8-1
50% 7-7
64% 9-5-1
44% 6-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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