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WASHINGTON

COMMANDERSWSH

1-4-1  |  Road

17
FINAL
Mon, Oct 19 • 8:15 PM ET
Levi's Stadium
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

49ERSSF

6-0  |  Home

23
Key Game
Tress Way
KEY GAME

Tress Way

#10 | Punter
@
Corliss Waitman
KEY GAME

Corliss Waitman

#15 | Punter
Player
Tress Way None-None
Corliss Waitman None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COMMANDERS
29%
📊
49ERS
71%
▲ Edge: +2.90% (WSH)
COMMANDERS 26% Book Odds: +288
49ERS 77% Book Odds: -339
Book Implied: 25.80% / 77.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.4
Projected
Book Total
52.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.6 (Under)
Over 52.0 48%
Under 52.0 52%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
-7.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.5 points (San Francisco)
CommandersWSH (+7.5) 0 49ersSF (-7.5)
San Francisco 49ers (-7.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Commanders Cover

17.7%

49ers Cover

82.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SF -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

WSH By 1-6 points

8.6%

WSH By 7-13 points

5.3%

SF By 1-6 points

13.5%

SF By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
19.2
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 22.20
32.2
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 29.80
Simulated Score
29
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 22.20
22
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 29.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI 49ers Win
71% Win Prob
A
Sim Commanders Loss
75% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI 49ers (-7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
A
Sim Commanders (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u52.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.4
D
Sim u52.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 19, 2026 WSH @ SF 17 - 23
Dec 31, 2023 SF @ WSH 27 - 10
Dec 24, 2022 WSH @ SF 20 - 37
Dec 13, 2020 WSH @ SF 23 - 15
Oct 20, 2019 SF @ WSH 9 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +80.0% more
San Francisco: 1.3 vs Washington: 0.5
Net Passing Yards (L5) +19.4% more
San Francisco: 218.8 vs Washington: 183.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +19.0% more
San Francisco: 0.5 vs Washington: 0.3
Yards Per Play (L5) +12.3% more
San Francisco: 5.9 vs Washington: 5.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 19.2 17
SF Score 32.2 23
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.0 / 17.4 20.0 / 19.0
Net Passing Yards 218.8 / 183.2 249.0 / 261.0
Rushing Yards 120.7 / 142.1 126.0 / 53.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.5 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 339.5 / 325.3 375.0 / 314.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 0.5 1.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.9 / 5.3 6.2 / 5.1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +205 / -250 → +288 / -339 ↑
6%TICKETS94%
22%MONEY78%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +5.5 / -5.5 → +7.5 / -7.5 ↑
32%TICKETS68%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: 50.5 → 52 ↑
75%TICKETS25%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
1-4-1 (20.0%)
Margin: -6.7 ATS +/-: -2.1
SF Advantage
6-1-0 (85.7%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -6.7 ATS +/-: -2.1
SF Advantage
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
4-2-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +4.8
SF
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
WSH
SF
WSH
ML
57% 4-3
67% 4-2
14% 1-6
40% 2-3-1
ATS
14% 1-6
33% 2-4
29% 2-5
83% 5-1
TTL
57% 4-3
67% 4-2
71% 5-2
83% 5-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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