Home / NFL Projections NFL / Cowboys @ Packers DAL @ GB

DALLAS

COWBOYSDAL

2-4  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sun, Oct 18 • 8:20 PM ET
Lambeau Field
View Odds Details →

GREEN BAY

PACKERSGB

4-2  |  Home

23
Key Game
Bryan Anger
KEY GAME

Bryan Anger

#5 | Punter
@
Daniel Whelan
KEY GAME

Daniel Whelan

#19 | Punter
Player
Bryan Anger None-None
Daniel Whelan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COWBOYS
38%
📊
PACKERS
62%
▲ Edge: +11.30% (GB)
COWBOYS 52% Book Odds: -108
PACKERS 51% Book Odds: -102
Book Implied: 51.90% / 50.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.0
Projected
Book Total
53.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +3.5 (Under)
Over 53.5 37%
Under 53.5 63%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
GREEN BAY
Book Spread
+1
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Green Bay)
CowboysDAL (-1) 0 PackersGB (+1)
Green Bay Packers (+1) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cowboys Cover

30.9%

Packers Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around GB -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GB)

DAL By 1-6 points

12.9%

DAL By 7-13 points

9.6%

GB By 1-6 points

16.5%

GB By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
21.5
DALLAS
Book Implied: 27.20
28.5
GREEN BAY
Book Implied: 26.20
Simulated Score
27
DALLAS
Book Implied: 27.20
24
GREEN BAY
Book Implied: 26.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Packers Win
62% Win Prob
C
Sim Cowboys Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Packers (+1) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
A
Sim Cowboys (-1) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u53.5 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
B
Sim u53.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 18, 2026 DAL @ GB 13 - 23
Sep 28, 2025 GB @ DAL 40 - 40
Jan 14, 2024 GB @ DAL 48 - 32
Nov 13, 2022 DAL @ GB 28 - 31
Oct 6, 2019 GB @ DAL 34 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +27.8% more
Dallas: 1.3 vs Green Bay: 1.0
First Downs (L5) +24.4% more
Dallas: 23.2 vs Green Bay: 17.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +13.0% more
Dallas: 0.4 vs Green Bay: 0.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +11.4% more
Dallas: 81.0 vs Green Bay: 71.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 21.5 13
GB Score 28.5 23
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.5 / 23.2 20.0 / 24.0
Net Passing Yards 273.2 / 291.3 261.0 / 255.0
Rushing Yards 71.8 / 81.0 57.0 / 48.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.61 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 345.0 / 372.3 318.0 / 303.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.3 1.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 5.9 / 6.0 4.5 / 4.3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +140 / -166 → -108 / -102 ↓
46%TICKETS54%
73%MONEY27%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +3 / -3 → -1 / +1 ↓
60%TICKETS40%
62%MONEY38%
Total (O/U)
Open: 51.5 → 53.5 ↑
76%TICKETS24%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-: -1.1
GB Advantage
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-: -1.1
GB
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
5-2-0
O: 71.4% / U: 28.6% Total +/-: +3.0
GB
2-5-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4% Total +/-: -5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GB
DAL
GB
DAL
ML
71% 5-2
43% 3-4
71% 5-2
43% 3-4
ATS
50% 3-3-1
67% 4-2-1
50% 3-3-1
67% 4-2-1
TTL
43% 3-4
57% 4-3
57% 4-3
43% 3-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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