BUFFALO
BILLSBUF
5-1 | Road
33
LAS VEGAS
RAIDERSLV
3-3 | Home
30
Key Game
KEY GAME
Tommy Doman Jr.
#39 | Punter@
KEY GAME
AJ Cole
#6 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Tommy Doman Jr. | None-None |
| AJ Cole | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BILLS
71%
RAIDERS
29%
▲ Edge: +1.10% (BUF)
BILLS
70%
Book Odds: -228
RAIDERS
33%
Book Odds: +200
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.0
Projected
Book Total
53.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 53.5
51%
Under 53.5
49%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.4
BUFFALO
Book Spread
-4.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.9 points (Buffalo)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around BUF -8.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)
BUF By 1-6 points
16.0%
BUF By 7-13 points
19.6%
LV By 1-6 points
11.9%
LV By 7-13 points
8.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Buffalo
31.2
BUFFALO
Book Implied: 29
Las Vegas
22.8
LAS VEGAS
Book Implied: 24.50
Simulated Score
Buffalo
28
BUFFALO
Book Implied: 29
Las Vegas
21
LAS VEGAS
Book Implied: 24.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Bills
Win
71% Win Prob
A
Sim
Bills
Win
75% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Bills (-4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.4
B
Sim
Bills (-4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o53.5
Win
Proj Total: 54.0
D
Sim
u53.5
Loss
Proj Total: 49.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 18, 2026
BUF @ LV
33 - 30
Sep 17, 2023
LV @ BUF
10 - 38
Oct 4, 2020
BUF @ LV
30 - 23
Oct 29, 2017
LV @ BUF
14 - 34
Dec 4, 2016
BUF @ LV
24 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5)
+59.4% more
Buffalo: 169.1
vs
Las Vegas: 68.6
Turnovers (L5)
+36.5% more
Buffalo: 2.0
vs
Las Vegas: 1.3
Yards Per Play (L5)
+22.8% more
Buffalo: 6.6
vs
Las Vegas: 5.1
Total Yards (L5)
+16.3% more
Buffalo: 388.2
vs
Las Vegas: 324.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BUF Score
31.2
33
LV Score
22.8
30
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
19.8 / 23.2
25.0 / 23.0
Net Passing Yards
256.2 / 219.1
313.0 / 242.0
Rushing Yards
68.6 / 169.1
65.0 / 103.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.4
0.58 / 0.36
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards
324.8 / 388.2
378.0 / 345.0
Turnovers
1.3 / 2.0
1.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play
5.1 / 6.6
6.2 / 5.4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -270 / +220
→
-228 / +200
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -6.5 / +6.5
→
-4.5 / +4.5
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 47.5
→
53.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BUF
Advantage
5-1-0
(83.3%)
Margin: 4.3
ATS +/-: +0.5
LV
3-4-0
(42.9%)
Margin: -2.0
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BUF
4-2-0
(66.7%)
Margin: 4.3
ATS +/-: +0.5
LV
Advantage
5-2-0
(71.4%)
Margin: -2.0
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
BUF
5-1-0
O: 83.3% / U: 16.7%
Total +/-: +9.8
LV
5-2-0
O: 71.4% / U: 28.6%
Total +/-: +7.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LV
BUF
LV
BUF
ML
71%
5-2
50%
3-3
71%
5-2
50%
3-3
ATS
43%
3-4
17%
1-5
43%
3-4
17%
1-5
TTL
29%
2-5
33%
2-4
29%
2-5
17%
1-5
Contextual Game News
.jpg)
