Home / NFL Projections NFL / Chargers @ Chiefs LAC @ KC

LOS ANGELES

CHARGERSLAC

0-6  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sun, Oct 18 • 4:25 PM ET
Arrowhead Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

CHIEFSKC

5-0  |  Home

22
Key Game
JK Scott
KEY GAME

JK Scott

#16 | Punter
@
Matt Araiza
KEY GAME

Matt Araiza

#14 | Punter
Player
JK Scott None-None
Matt Araiza None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CHARGERS
43%
📊
CHIEFS
57%
▲ Edge: +20.50% (LAC)
CHARGERS 22% Book Odds: +350
CHIEFS 82% Book Odds: -455
Book Implied: 22.20% / 82%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
44.4
Projected
Book Total
41.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 (Over)
Over 41.5 59%
Under 41.5 41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
+7.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (Los Angeles)
ChargersLAC (+7.5) 0 ChiefsKC (-7.5)
Los Angeles Chargers (+7.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Chargers Cover

61.2%

Chiefs Cover

38.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around LAC +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAC)

LAC By 1-6 points

14.7%

LAC By 7-13 points

12.1%

KC By 1-6 points

17.0%

KC By 7-13 points

18.0%

AI Model Projected Score
20.2
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 17
24.2
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 24.50
Simulated Score
25
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 17
22
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 24.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Chiefs Win
57% Win Prob
C
Sim Chargers Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Chargers (+7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +4.0
B
Sim Chargers (+7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o41.5 Loss
Proj Total: 44.4
B
Sim o41.5 Loss
Proj Total: 47.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 18, 2026 LAC @ KC 6 - 22
Dec 14, 2025 LAC @ KC 16 - 13
Sep 5, 2025 KC @ LAC 21 - 27
Dec 8, 2024 LAC @ KC 17 - 19
Sep 29, 2024 KC @ LAC 17 - 10
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +61.9% more
Kansas City: 238.1 vs Los Angeles: 147.1
Yards Per Play (L5) +37.7% more
Kansas City: 6.4 vs Los Angeles: 4.6
Total Yards (L5) +34.3% more
Kansas City: 387.8 vs Los Angeles: 288.8
First Downs (L5) +17.0% more
Kansas City: 20.1 vs Los Angeles: 17.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAC Score 20.2 6
KC Score 24.2 22
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.1 / 17.2 22.0 / 15.0
Net Passing Yards 238.1 / 147.1 272.0 / 186.0
Rushing Yards 149.7 / 141.7 150.0 / 73.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.3 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 387.8 / 288.8 422.0 / 259.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 2.7 2.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 6.4 / 4.6 7.4 / 4.1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +120 / -142 → +350 / -455 ↑
3%TICKETS97%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +2.5 / -2.5 → +7.5 / -7.5 ↑
33%TICKETS67%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: 46.5 → 41.5 ↓
72%TICKETS28%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAC
0-6-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -10.2 ATS +/-: -8.7
KC Advantage
5-1-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 6.7 ATS +/-: +2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAC
0-5-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -10.2 ATS +/-: -8.7
KC Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 6.7 ATS +/-: +2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
LAC
1-5-0
O: 16.7% / U: 83.3% Total +/-: -4.7
KC
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
LAC
KC
LAC
ML
100% 6-0
50% 3-3
83% 5-1
50% 3-3
ATS
50% 3-3
20% 1-4-1
17% 1-5
0% 0-5-1
TTL
33% 2-4
67% 4-2
50% 3-3
50% 3-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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